Re:Please poke holes in my Covid-19 math (SF Bay Area)
by AstralStorm on Monday March 16, 2020 @12:45PM
(#22594311)
Gompertz type 2 fits somewhat better.
Ultimately for such complex things like spread with barriers Tsalis statistics are good. That could mean q-Weibull distribution.
This isn't to say that modelling isn't useful, but that forecasting a novel infection while it's ongoing is really, really, really hard.
Edit: Also, Iād be interested to see a comparison of the fit between a typical logistic, four parameter logistic, Gompertz etc. Not all sigmoids are the same.