Does anyone have insight into how moderate/voluntary vs. strict social distancing impacts the rate of spread? Anecdotally, the streets in the SF Richmond District feel a lot emptier than usual when I go out for walks/runs (pretty much the only reason I'm going out anymore). Seems like it could be up to a 50% reduction.

That should already be helping, but I wonder if spreading might follow a power law pattern where "super-spreaders" account for a vastly disproportionate share of transmissions. If that's the case, it might require a strict lockdown to meaningfully reduce the exponent?