Re:Please poke holes in my Covid-19 math (SF Bay Area)
by mokus on Sunday March 15, 2020 @03:22PM
(#22585923)
I had recently seen a claim that among the first 5 US cases, some had been apparent community spread, but searching back now I can’t find any substantiation for that claim. So yeah, looks like my assumptions here were wrong. Sorry.
Using the same math from feb 26 instead, which is the date I saw a CDC article published about first suspected community transmission, the figures are instead 15 * 10 * 2^(18/3) = 9600, which is more plausible. In any case, the calculations are extremely sensitive to the growth rate which, as you say, is also a thing we can control by modulating behavior. The extent to which we will actually do so is debatable, of course. As far as I’m aware I’m still expected to show up on site for work tomorrow.
Re:Please poke holes in my Covid-19 math (SF Bay Area)
by Izkata on Sunday March 15, 2020 @04:29PM
(#22586470)
Using the "Total Cases" graph (logarithmic view) here [0], it looks like Mar 1 is when the US's reported cases became exponential, and is probably a better baseline.
Using the same math from feb 26 instead, which is the date I saw a CDC article published about first suspected community transmission, the figures are instead 15 * 10 * 2^(18/3) = 9600, which is more plausible. In any case, the calculations are extremely sensitive to the growth rate which, as you say, is also a thing we can control by modulating behavior. The extent to which we will actually do so is debatable, of course. As far as I’m aware I’m still expected to show up on site for work tomorrow.