Re:Please poke holes in my Covid-19 math (SF Bay Area)
by lkbm on Sunday March 15, 2020 @02:55PM
(#22585697)
> "Or, multiply it by less if you want to take into account various amounts of social distancing we're all doing. I'll cut that number above down by a huge amount – 90% – on the assumption that we all learn to stay home and self-isolate immediately, just to be super aggressive on my assumptions about how humanity will rise to the occasion"
I don't think our social distancing and hand washing will be near enough to prevent millions of deaths, but it's important to recognize that a small change in the growth rate does make a huge difference.
Estimating how much we can affect the growth rate is hard, but I think models should be based on a iffy guess on that value rather than an iffy guess on the resulting count. (Expert models certainly are.)
Dropping 90% is not a great way to calculate this. Look at the math for 61 days out (from March 8): https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg?t=465
I don't think our social distancing and hand washing will be near enough to prevent millions of deaths, but it's important to recognize that a small change in the growth rate does make a huge difference.
Estimating how much we can affect the growth rate is hard, but I think models should be based on a iffy guess on that value rather than an iffy guess on the resulting count. (Expert models certainly are.)