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A comment on Open letter from Italy to the international scientific community. Parent comment

Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by nemonemo on Saturday March 14, 2020 @11:21PM (#22580946)
How much difference is there between the r0 value of 2 and that of 3? Maybe we can't flatten the curve to fit it under the threshold, but we can probably reduce the area above it?
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Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by nostrademons on Sunday March 15, 2020 @01:29AM (#22581530)
Trevor Bedford had a tweet that indicated a 25% reduction in social contacts results in a 50% reduction in cases after 1 month:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237934525281259521

I think it's very likely that Wuhan or Italy style lockdowns will bring r0 under 1, based on the experience in Wuhan and Italy. That means the disease eventually dies out. Because it's endemic elsewhere in the world, it'll eventually be reintroduced and we get multiple waves, until eventually enough people have had it to generate herd immunity. But each wave starts back at the "containment" phase, with contact tracing and individual isolation, so combining lockdown + those measures + travel restrictions could probably buy enough time for a vaccine.

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Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by WA on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:15AM (#22582331)
- For how long do you have to keep your containment measures up?

- Do you have to introduce new containment measures with every wave of reinfection?

- How many waves / months of total are required to achieve enough herd immunity while keeping the hospitals within capacity?

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Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co... by nostrademons on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:50PM (#22587127)
Presumably the answers to these are:

- Until a vaccine is developed.

- Yes

- Until a vaccine is developed.

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