I think some napkin math with the number of celebrities and professional sports players, who presumably have far better access to testing than the US public (which has essentially zero access), would show that we are at least at 150k-200k infections, if not more. At least, immediately before Tom Hanks announced his infection, I saw some napkin math that showed that since no politicians, movie stars, or professional athletes were positive, the rate was less than 1/2000 in the US. Now that we have multiple infections in that group, we are in the > 1/2000 == 150k infection regime.