Re:Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius?
by hedora on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:32PM
(#22580352)
> 10 to 15% of their population in intensive care
Estimates are closer to 10% of the infected getting severe cases, and some small-ish fraction of those requiring intensive care. (The higher percentage numbers are usually an artifact of low testing rates of infected people.)
Also, epidemiology suggests that 20-70% will get it. So, we’re looking at ~1% of the population in the hospital at once.
The rest of your points stand; we don’t have nearly enough hospital capacity for 1% of the population.
Note that with a two week active phase, the pandemic would have to drag on for 20 weeks to get that number to 0.1%. I doubt there is capacity for that either.
Estimates are closer to 10% of the infected getting severe cases, and some small-ish fraction of those requiring intensive care. (The higher percentage numbers are usually an artifact of low testing rates of infected people.)
Also, epidemiology suggests that 20-70% will get it. So, we’re looking at ~1% of the population in the hospital at once.
The rest of your points stand; we don’t have nearly enough hospital capacity for 1% of the population.
Note that with a two week active phase, the pandemic would have to drag on for 20 weeks to get that number to 0.1%. I doubt there is capacity for that either.