Re:Open letter from Italy to the international scientific co...
by lbeltrame on Saturday March 14, 2020 @09:38PM
(#22580386)
The press reports several models which say between next week and the end of April for the so called "peak" (I don't think the press understands what it means, however), but at least to me they're useless because the confidence intervals are not given (I can't expect a newspaper to do so, but providing a source to consult in such cases would be beneficial).
Some of these models are also different in nature, which adds to the uncertainty: some are epidemiological models, some are economical (used to evaluate the impact of the measures on the long term).
Lastly, a lot of qualified people speak and try to give estimates. I'd love if they don't, because currently the best answer is "we do not know yet".
That said, I think that going over two months of lockdown will be probably ruinous for the country as whole.
A significant proportion of infected need hospitalization to survive. If we all get sick at once, there simply aren't enough hospital beds to go around, not to mention other supplies. If the hospitals go far beyond capacity, the fatality rate will be _far_ higher than otherwise.
As to how long, I haven't seen good models. In the US we don't have very good data either, because we're testing basically noone.