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Re:Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? by twic on Saturday March 14, 2020 @05:16PM (#22578764)
It's far too early to say whether they're doing great. Several months too early. Their lockdowns are preventing virus spread now, but at some point, the lockdowns will end, and then there is a vulnerable population waiting to be infected by a carrier coming from abroad. Will they be able to keep carriers out? Will they be able to respond to further outbreaks with more lockdowns indefinitely? Will there be a vaccine soon enough that they can protect everyone and then end the lockdowns before it all goes wrong?

I don't know enough to say that the UK strategy is correct (i hope it is - i live here, and more importantly, so do my parents). But i think the situation isn't cut and dried.

Hopefully, we will get a lot more detail in the next few days, and then the real experts can come to a consensus.

Re:Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? by hellotomyrars on Saturday March 14, 2020 @10:05PM (#22580561)
I would rather have the spread stopped/slowed domestically with aggressive measures than to do little to nothing to stop the spread thinking it will somehow solve the problem.

The UK approach here is basically just accepting that a majority of the population is going to get infected by design. That's fine. It might even be true. (It obviously will be if you don't do anything to stop it, but even in aggressive lockdowns I mean)

But it benefits nobody to have it spread quicker. Maybe life in the UK gets back to normal a little faster for people who are not at-risk or aren't treated at risk but we live in a very global society and if everyone else is locked down then it's hard to see much benefit for the UK itself.

And your parents and the portion of the population who are most vulnerable are more at risk.

An imperfect defense is better than not even trying.

Re:Ask HN: Is UK government insane or genius? by thu2111 on Sunday March 15, 2020 @05:57AM (#22582473)
There won't ever be a consensus of experts. That whole concept is one I've really come to hate over the years. When it comes to decisions about what to do, versus the outcome of replicable experiments on nature in lab conditions, there is always disagreement and there always will be. The idea that any decision can be resolved by a bunch of scientists sitting in a committee beard stroking doesn't reflect how people really work.

Amongst other problems, the term "expert" is ill defined (see discussion above about mathematicians) and there's always value in contrarianism for people who aren't directly making decisions. If they're wrong nobody will remember and there's nearly no reputational impact. If they're right, they can win fame and glory.