Yesterday I talked to a colleague who relayed the story of a transatlantic flight this week, where only 6 seats were filled, out of 36 in the section.
I don’t think there’s much remaining travel left to be banned. The resulting economic impact therefore can’t be that big.
The impact on the spread of the virus can't be that big either. My point though is that big flashy moves like banning all flights appear to do very little compared to more mundane tactics. At least based on the info in the press conference I'm referring to the data doesn't support flight bans, banning large gatherings etc.
The peak is coming either way. Continuing to allow people to mix with each other as normal will make it steeper and more intense.
This article [0] makes the case well.
[0] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...
Boris Johnson looked very tired, but actually - and I can’t believe I think this - did a good job yesterday.
I was thinking after — they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Many people seem to want draconian measures now, judging from the WhatsApp photos going around.
Then there’s the markets etc etc who want stability etc.
The “any fever or persistent cough = self isolate” was a good call i think.
It takes a lot of untested sick people - potential cases - out of circulation before all hell breaks loose.
It buys time with minimum disruption - many people might take the time off sick anyway if they’re already ill.
Also buys time to implement infra. and org. planning.
If you only act when you hit the peak, any measures will be moot. Countries need to act now to reduce that peak and flatten the curve.
But sure, why not letting thousands of Atletico supporters into Liverpool, while Madrid has 1k+ cases. Was it also a "drastic measure" to play a football match behind closed doors?
> "Also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.”
They’re not acting only when the peak hits. They’re staging the response.
More serious measures come in as the number of transmission go up. And that’s all about managing the resources of the NHS over a long period of time.
Introduce lockdown now, sure, you delay the peak. But you don’t spread it out over a longer time period. People will stop caring and start ignoring advice.
The timing is critical.
Primarily you need to consider the behaviour of people. This is going to go on for a while no matter what we do and if we lockdown people now, by the time we hit the peak they will be ready to give up and go outside again. We need to save the drastic measures for the peak in order to spread the damage out and make sure they are effective. I was previously critical of the government but honestly I think it makes a lot of sense.
We need to consider the effectiveness of measures. Banning all flights into the US from Europe may sound like a grand plan but in reality it's not going to make a big dent and the economic damage is going to be huge. But it sounds good and in the current climate where we're being led by panic that's the plan people will like.