Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

Re:Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid... by PeterisP on Thursday March 12, 2020 @07:32AM (#22555688)

The actions taken during February in Wuhan and neighboring provinces seem to have stopped the spread there, so effective actions can be taken.

Thing is, it appears that there's little overlap between actions that seem reasonable and actions that are effective. If you wait until drastic actions seem justifiable, then by that time it's too late to be effective (i.e. the Italy lockdown which would have helped Italy if it was done 2-3 weeks earlier); and if you take effective actions, then most people and media will wonder why you're so authorative and unreasonable (e.g. the reaction to early Wuhan containment measure enforcement).

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid... by blueblimp on Thursday March 12, 2020 @09:09AM (#22556381)

Another interesting penalty of delayed action is that any exponential increase that happened while you were delaying needs to be balanced by a period of exponential decrease once you have measures in place. Exactly how much depends on assumptions, but e.g. delaying applying measures by 2 weeks could mean they need to be kept for 4 additional weeks.

So the overall cost picture is strongly in favor of early action.

[ Parent | on HN ]