Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by knzhou on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @10:16PM
(#22552938)
He lowered it from 40-70% to 20-60%, hardly a qualitative change. The fact is that under essentially any epidemiological model, if you have R0 > 1 and no countermeasures, it's going to hit a sizable fraction of the world population, because the exponential growth only gets stopped by running out of victims.
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Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by Proziam on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @10:21PM
(#22552973)
Please read the entire source.
> Summary: Should have said 40-70% of adults in a situation without effective controls.
There's an enormous difference between 40-70% of everyone and 20-60% of adults - specifically if no countermeasures are deployed.
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by knzhou on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @10:27PM
(#22553017)
But the point of this thread is discussing why countermeasures are justified. I'm saying that you should expect a disaster if no countermeasures are deployed -- which is exactly what you're saying too.
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by Proziam on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @10:35PM
(#22553068)
The subject of this whole discussion is that there's a travel restriction being put in place. This is why I believe promoting numbers that were arrived at prematurely (I would argue unethically, with the intention of being 'first' in the news) and that specifically don't account for countermeasures to be a bad idea.
We should be trying to promote risk assessments that are situationally correct.