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A comment on ‘God preserve us all’: Samuel Pepys and the Great Plague (2015). Parent comment
The >1% numbers are all CFRs, calculated from diagnosed cases. They don't account for people with no symptoms, or those who aren't tested.
It's very hard to estimate unmodified population mortality, because the real numbers are lowered by quarantine measures and health care.
But real population mortality seems set to be well under 1%, with the bulk of deaths among the over the 60s, heavily skewed to the over 80s.
That's hardly trivial, but it's a long way off the 240 million who would die if the population mortality really were around 3%.
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The >1% numbers are all CFRs, calculated from diagnosed cases. They don't account for people with no symptoms, or those who aren't tested.
It's very hard to estimate unmodified population mortality, because the real numbers are lowered by quarantine measures and health care.
But real population mortality seems set to be well under 1%, with the bulk of deaths among the over the 60s, heavily skewed to the over 80s.
That's hardly trivial, but it's a long way off the 240 million who would die if the population mortality really were around 3%.