Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to...
by pmoriarty on Monday March 09, 2020 @11:33PM
(#22532523)
The recommended isolation period might not be a mere 14 days for much longer.
"According to the official Weibo news of the "News 1 + 1" column of CCTV, on March 6, Bai Yansong talked with Wu Hao, the head of the community prevention and control expert group of the central steering group.
"Wu Hao said: Patients discharged from Wuhan must have 14 days of centralized isolation observation and 14 days of home medical isolation observation, and they must go through a total of 28 days of isolation observation period. The first 14 days are the observations of centralized medical isolation points, which are usually requisitioned and modified medical isolation points such as hotels or training schools for observation. In principle, each isolation point is matched by a doctor and a nurse for every 50 people, and there are other life support personnel. At the same time, there is a division-level leader cadre at the isolation point."[1][2]
Also, when it comes to trying to squash the epidemic nation-wide, even 28 days might not be enough, as you have to reset the clock with every new infection.
Let me give an example. Let's say everyone in Italy isolates themselves (with their families or whoever they're living with) for 14 days. At day 13, someone of them that's infected could infect someone else they're living with, and if they then go out in to society on day 14 they can start the epidemic all over again.
Of course, if this was perfect isolation, with every single individual keeping completely away from every other individual, then 14 days (or 28 days) might be enough (assuming no atypical cases that take longer to resolve). But that's not going to happen in the real world.
People will need to have some contact for getting food from each other, for example, and for keeping essential utilities like water and electricity running, for keeping hospitals open, etc. That's not to mention group living facilities like nursing homes and prisons. There are just not enough individual living accommodations to make perfect isolation possible.
Worse, even if there was perfect isolation in Italy, when the isolation period ends the epidemic could still start all over again when one single sick person from another country enters.
In order to be really effective, such isolation measures would have to be both perfect and simultaneously held all over the world, or else once a country is clear of the disease it would have to somehow prevent sick people from other countries from entering, which isn't going to happen either.
"According to the official Weibo news of the "News 1 + 1" column of CCTV, on March 6, Bai Yansong talked with Wu Hao, the head of the community prevention and control expert group of the central steering group.
"Wu Hao said: Patients discharged from Wuhan must have 14 days of centralized isolation observation and 14 days of home medical isolation observation, and they must go through a total of 28 days of isolation observation period. The first 14 days are the observations of centralized medical isolation points, which are usually requisitioned and modified medical isolation points such as hotels or training schools for observation. In principle, each isolation point is matched by a doctor and a nurse for every 50 people, and there are other life support personnel. At the same time, there is a division-level leader cadre at the isolation point."[1][2]
Also, when it comes to trying to squash the epidemic nation-wide, even 28 days might not be enough, as you have to reset the clock with every new infection.
Let me give an example. Let's say everyone in Italy isolates themselves (with their families or whoever they're living with) for 14 days. At day 13, someone of them that's infected could infect someone else they're living with, and if they then go out in to society on day 14 they can start the epidemic all over again.
Of course, if this was perfect isolation, with every single individual keeping completely away from every other individual, then 14 days (or 28 days) might be enough (assuming no atypical cases that take longer to resolve). But that's not going to happen in the real world.
People will need to have some contact for getting food from each other, for example, and for keeping essential utilities like water and electricity running, for keeping hospitals open, etc. That's not to mention group living facilities like nursing homes and prisons. There are just not enough individual living accommodations to make perfect isolation possible.
Worse, even if there was perfect isolation in Italy, when the isolation period ends the epidemic could still start all over again when one single sick person from another country enters.
In order to be really effective, such isolation measures would have to be both perfect and simultaneously held all over the world, or else once a country is clear of the disease it would have to somehow prevent sick people from other countries from entering, which isn't going to happen either.
[1] - http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/03/06/700265.html
[2] - https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/feql65/wuhan_i...