Re:Ask HN: How are you preparing yourself for a recession?
by Jtsummers on Monday March 09, 2020 @03:37PM
(#22528916)
Quoting you:
> You might end up with more money in the end than if you had never invested.
My reading of your comment was perhaps too harsh, but your statement implied to my initial reading as if the parent said they never invested. Which is not at all what they said, but rather that they kept cash in the bank and a separate amount invested. The cash is to avoid the risks of market timing (you can't do it, basically). People are getting lucky that right now they're still ahead on their investments. But there's no guarantee that will remain true over the next month or two when the money is actually needed.
And if you look at the S&P and Dow, the past 2 years are basically all lost if you had to sell right now. There was a dip in early 2019, but most of the past two years were above today's prices for both indexes. So you can plan on being lucky, or you can set aside a relatively small amount and actually plan.
Re:Ask HN: How are you preparing yourself for a recession?
by twblalock on Monday March 09, 2020 @03:42PM
(#22528976)
You replied to my comment with the least charitable interpretation of what I wrote, which is against the guidelines. You also accused me of dishonesty.
> You might end up with more money in the end than if you had never invested.
My reading of your comment was perhaps too harsh, but your statement implied to my initial reading as if the parent said they never invested. Which is not at all what they said, but rather that they kept cash in the bank and a separate amount invested. The cash is to avoid the risks of market timing (you can't do it, basically). People are getting lucky that right now they're still ahead on their investments. But there's no guarantee that will remain true over the next month or two when the money is actually needed.
And if you look at the S&P and Dow, the past 2 years are basically all lost if you had to sell right now. There was a dip in early 2019, but most of the past two years were above today's prices for both indexes. So you can plan on being lucky, or you can set aside a relatively small amount and actually plan.