Re:Quarantine will normalize WFH and recession will denormal...
by Nasrudith on Monday March 09, 2020 @08:36AM
(#22524860)
This is a bit of a pet peeve of mine. Blindly assuming exponential growth will actually hold is downright excuse for panicing thinking. Exponentials inevitably breaks once it reaches a limiting condition. Which is well before "infects literally everyone" when there are sensible measures taken to minimize contact made.
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Re:Quarantine will normalize WFH and recession will denormal...
by greenhatman on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:54AM
(#22533850)
That's exactly it. Exponential growth can only be cut short if proper containment measures are followed. If not, infection rates will look like the S curve of popular technology adoption rates, where it only tapers off when nearly everyone has been infected.
Re:Quarantine will normalize WFH and recession will denormal...
by TeMPOraL on Monday March 09, 2020 @01:12PM
(#22527161)
"Infects literally everyone" is 7 billion people. If it infects 0.1% of that, it's already going to be extreme.
Obvious limiting factor would be local saturation. Problem is, we're shuffling population faster than ever before.
No, I see no reason to not expect the virus to ride the exponent into millions of cases. I guess we'll see if I was right in less than two weeks.
EDIT: On top of that - arguably, it's not the virus that's most dangerous right now; it's the healthcare system overload and the disruption to the supply chains (and the economy in general) it caused. Not going to take bets on that, but I feel somewhat positive that these secondary effects will lead to more deaths than the COVID-19 itself.