Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by capkutay on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:36PM (#22485771)

3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%.

Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age plays a significant factor. The IFR is about 0.2% for young healthy people, while it is quite dangerous for people over 60 with existing conditions.

https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by bcrosby95 on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:51PM (#22485948)

0.98% seems to assume your medical system doesn't get overloaded:

> evidence to date points toward 2019-nCoV having the potential to have comparable severity to the 1918 flu pandemic in the absence of effective control and treatment, when averaged across all ages.

Early detection and isolation is key. Much of the world seems to be doing a poor job of it, and that is what is causing people to be concerned.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by edmundsauto on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:42PM (#22485836)

Just curious, what is the mortality rate of the regular flu for young healthy people?

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by WaltPurvis on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @01:12PM (#22486155)

For US adults ages 18-49, it varies (depending on the severity of flu strains) between .01% and .02%.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by ouid on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @02:51PM (#22487326)

.2% if you are 30, .2% is greater than your cumulative risk from driving. It's a huge risk.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by the_af on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:39PM (#22485809)

Thanks! That's interesting. I suspected there's a methodological flaw in assuming actual death rates from the sample of detected cases who died.

We need this voice of reason. Otherwise we're just panicking.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by kfarr on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:34PM (#22485758)

To be clear, the article says "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." The issue is with reporting (the denominator). The bar for "reporting" COVID-19 positive is very high relative to the flu, especially as some countries (ahem USA) don't / didn't even permit testing of all symptomatic patients.

So yes maybe it is orders of magnitude more deadly than the flu but it doesn't seem clear at all that we have sufficient information to say that it is 3.4%

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by makomk on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:47PM (#22485906)

Not just the US. Crucially, Wuhan and I think also the rest of Hubei pretty much only tested patients who showed lung abnormalities on CT scans, so only the more severe cases were diagnosed. The WHO knows this. In fact, they've been appearing in the pages of the New York Times and anywhere else that'll have them and gushing about how great this Chinese testing methodology is and how everyone should copy it.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by fspeech on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @02:10PM (#22486850)

They test much more widely but only those with pneumonia are counted as confirmed. But this is a viral pneumonia. So the undercounting is not that much.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by the_af on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:29PM (#22485712)

Thanks for the reply. So my doctor is wrong then? (It wouldn't be the first time...)

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by techopoly on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:37PM (#22485789)

I think most doctors make it a point to instill calm in their patients. And, the nature of their work is that they have likely dealt with emergency situations and dying patients, so they have seen the worst and have to have a way to handle these things. So they are coming from a different position than you, perhaps (maybe, maybe not).

Symptom-wise, as far as I can tell, COVID-19 can be similar to the flu. Especially for most people, who may not have much in the way of symptoms. So your doctor isn't wrong per se. But yes, the deadliness of the virus is much higher, unfortunately. So it is not quite similar in intensity, and it is a serious thing.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by diego on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:35PM (#22485765)

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died"

The keyword here is reported. We don't know how many unreported cases there are, it could be 10x the reported ones. In the US it's much more than that, given that almost nobody has been tested. We have 9 deaths so far and probably thousands of infected people.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by eezurr on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:37PM (#22485783)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#/...

Also, the death rate is 1.6% outside of China

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak#D...

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by username90 on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:35PM (#22485762)

It was 1% in diamond princess, and cruises are known to be full of retirees so it should be a lot lower than that in the general population. I believe the reason it looks so high is severe lack of testing.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by ouid on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @02:53PM (#22487341)

it wasn't anything in the diamond princess. The diamond princess is ongoing, and the rate of hospitalization is more important if the infection rate becomes too large.

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Re:Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big corona... by asjw on Wednesday March 04, 2020 @12:40PM (#22485813)

It's still a very small number.

BTW most of the deaths caused by the flu are not direct deaths.

It kills about 10 thousands of people a year in Italy (58 millions residents) while covid-19 has killed only 59 people and recovery rate is very high

Meanwhile pneumonia alone in Italy kills 13 thousands people/year

The real difference?

With the regular flu people stay home and die there, with this one they are being taken to the hospitals, even if there are no symptoms, and the healthcare system is under a lot of pressure for that

Draconian measure are just for that: avoiding a total crash of the healthcare system

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