That said, I think your comment about “failing an open-book test” is a bit unfair. Yes, the governmental response around the world has been bungled, and no, it isn’t good. But it’s also pretty much true that there was never going to be a chance to contain this virus, outside of isolating it to Wuhan in November (i.e. before anyone knew about it). And a bad flu will rip through vulnerable populations as well...it’s why we beg and plead for people to get the flu shot every year (even though they never do...)

There is simply no way to contain a respiratory virus that has spread to tens of thousands of people. At that point, you need to plan for isolation and care for the vulnerable, and stop flailing around with travel bans (which don’t work) and quarantines and whatnot. It’s insane to me, for example, that Seattle public health officials are operating as if this virus isn’t already endemic. They have good evidence that it is!

The biggest test we’re failing right now is controlling panic and allocating resources intelligently.

I'm worries and don't think it is a problem if we would reduce the global economy fora year to get rid of it.

Or that everyone on the planet should get vaccinated and should life more aware.

Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing every year during flu season.

But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally, where we can shave off a bit of economic growth in exchange for less virus. At this point, the virus is endemic. Quarantines make panicky people feel good, but don’t actually help. Isolation of Wuhan was a good thing to try, but it failed.

It’s time for the next step: acknowledgement that the virus is everywhere, and directly protecting vulnerable populations. This is going to happen sooner or later.

Though, I want to see the current CDC leadership out. They should not have silently removed their total tests done. The world needs to see their current incompetence as a lesson.

I suspect it will end up endemic, but the rate at which it infects everybody matters, a lot. That rate of new infection changes the load profile for the medical system, and it's when the system is overloaded that mortality skyrockets. Halving the infection rate could cut mortality by 90%.

And that's to say nothing of other advantages of kicking the can down the road, like higher temperatures decreasing transmission, doctors developing improved treatment protocols, and even a vaccine.

We don’t need quarantines and travel bans and trip cancellations and business shutdowns to slow the virus. These have always been scientifically dubious overreactions. Investing in hospital capacity and contact tracing, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense.

The drastic, economically expensive steps China took didn’t stop the virus from spreading out of (or within) China. Quarantines haven’t been effective anywhere else. There are things we can do to slow the virus, but few of them require massive economic impact.

https://www.kirklandreporter.com/news/coronavirus-death-toll...