Re:Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
by jfoster on Monday March 02, 2020 @11:45AM
(#22466025)
Suppose you're right about reasons why it spreads fast & lethally in China. How do you explain the fast spread and lethality outside China?
Re:Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
by Enginerrrd on Monday March 02, 2020 @01:10PM
(#22467024)
The two "fast"'s are relative. Epidemic dynamics are likely to differ in different countries for a bunch of reasons.
And, it does appear to be less lethal outside of China. That may be because healthcare systems are not yet overwhelmed, or it may be because of the smoking and pollution exposure in the different demographics. It is probably even both of those things.
Re:Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
by zaroth on Monday March 02, 2020 @03:08PM
(#22468362)
The latest numbers from the WHO say that although CFR was much higher in January, a new case in China in March will have a CFR of 0.7%.
They are guessing this shift could be due to a combination of reduced transmission load and refining treatment protocols.
The New England Journal of Medicine says it may likely be considerably less than 1%:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
People should remember the context of a respiratory disease in China. 2/3rds of men smoke, and air pollution is common. Things also spread faster there as itβs densely populated with lower hygiene standards than developed countries (for example: spitting is still common in some areas).