Re:Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies
by tristanj on Saturday February 29, 2020 @06:47PM
(#22454058)
> If you are under 60 years old, the lethality of Covid19 is only 2-3x that of the regular flu.
That does not pass the smell test. According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were an estimated people 14.4 million cases of the flu for people 18-49 years old, of which 2,803 died. That's a fatality rate of 0.02%.
The latest fatality rates coming out China show a 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for that age group. Which is 10-20x higher.
It seems like you reached the 2-3x lethality factor by comparing against the flu's overall CFR of 0.1%, which includes a lot of elderly people.
That does not pass the smell test. According to the CDC, in the 2017-2018 flu season, there were an estimated people 14.4 million cases of the flu for people 18-49 years old, of which 2,803 died. That's a fatality rate of 0.02%.
The latest fatality rates coming out China show a 0.2% to 0.4% CFR for that age group. Which is 10-20x higher.
It seems like you reached the 2-3x lethality factor by comparing against the flu's overall CFR of 0.1%, which includes a lot of elderly people.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...