This is an unprecedented global geopolitical event that is already reshaping politics. The market is down some 15% in 3 days. The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other governments realize the danger of excessive offshoring. Manufacturing may return to the U.S. Iran is crippled and blaming the virus on the U.S. Borders the world over are closing and will continue to close and you may see a rise in pro immigration control sentiment.

Nothing is arguably more appropriate for HN right now than this. The time to keep your head in the sand and go about daily life blissfully has long passed. Now is the time to brace for as the CDC put it severe disruptions. If the virus continues to spread as it has in Italy, China, Iran, it will affect every one of us.

> The Chinese Century has been pushed back for decades as the us and other government's realize the danger of excessive offshoring.

Remains to be seen. I think they have pulled off an enormous feat in slowing the virus as they have. Maybe China comes out of this relatively better than some other nations. The cone of uncertainty is a mile wide.

That's a fair point, the rate of increase in cases in China is now lower than the rate of increase in some countries. At the same time, I think that any numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt, both on the up and the downside. Not all countries test suspected cases in large quantities, reporting is inconsistent between countries and over time from single countries. Some countries are still in 'head in the sand' mode and asymptomatic spreading could translate in many more cases than are registered.

The ratios of cases:deceased and recovered:deceased are converging, which at least reduces the error bars around some of the more important numerical parameters of this particular virus.

The most important thing to realize is that R0 is not a hard attribute of the virus but something that we have some control over. By reducing R0 through the application of best practices we can stretch the onset of the peak and hence reduce the number of fatalities and the number of people that end up in a critical condition.

Some examples of best practices:

- good personal hygiene, in other words: wash your hands

- don't travel if you don't have to

- don't touch your face all the time (very hard, subconscious)

- if you think you have 'a' bug don't go to work and stay indoors until you've been tested (call the doctor, they should have a protocol)

- avoid crowds

The next few weeks will be crucial and will have an enormous effect on how we (collectively) will look back at this in a few months time.

I feel super sorry for everybody living in countries that do not have free healthcare, the virus will have a disproportional effect on people of different wealth status but in countries without free healthcare that effect will be vastly amplified.

Why would you feel sorry for everyone living in countries without free healthcare? As you mentioned wealth status would allow the wealthier to get care plus the fear of the spread will provide emergency funding to the poor (only for this). Plus can take supplies from global market by overpaying reducing supplies to other countries.

I feel sorry for smaller nations who rely on bigger countries for medical supplies/medicine as supplies reduce and become a national issue.

Because in lots of those countries people will not be able to afford the care they need.

I am not sure they have slowed down the virus

- coronavirus have been shown to reappear in recovered patients in China (prob due to the unsanitary conditions in cities)

- they have welded people in their homes. How would they have tested these folks?

- 800 million people are under quarantine. Again, how do they test all these people? Plus it’s been shown that family members locked in a tight space transmit the disease to each other. And the entire family dies off.

You're on the right track, though I don't think the welding was common. Chinese neighborhoods are under a type of lockdown where there are some 4 taxis per 10-50k people that are designated for goods and extreme emergency cases. One of the many ways the government makes the numbers look smaller.

They are playing straight out of the old Soviet playbook. Their party is literally an incarnation of the CCCP. Do not treat this country as you would a democratic first world nation - it's culture is nothing of the sort, for better or worse.

Yes, and if HN ever cracks down on stuff that literally saves people's lives, than maybe it's time for folks to leave and find a better platform...

>evidence of some interesting new phenomenon

Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society that this virus does, short perhaps of the black plague of the middle ages. This virus will test civilization.

Can you please tone down the doomsaying? It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch.

Is it really unprecedented? I mean, Ebola emerged not too long ago...

Also, keep in mind CDC estimates between 16k-41k have died from the flu in the US alone for the 2019-2020 flu season (dont have a link handy but just Google: CDC 2019 flu deaths). It may be that coronavirus has a higher fatality rate than the flu, but it doesnt have the body count of the flu. I think most of the fear is from it being new and unknown, but I personally have more fear of flu or salmonella poisoning than coronavirus. For instance, I will never eat shrimp from a cafeteria after grtting food poisoning twice. (Sleeping on a bathroom floor so you can easily vomit in the toilet is not fun or comfortable).

Chinese sources report up to 15% critical infection rate requiring life support. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. Consider the spread rate and do the math. It won't be long before hospitals are overwhelmed and businesses start to shut down to quarantine. When that happens, which stores will stay open to provide food? How will they be restocked if supply chains are disrupted? Weeks ago CNBC reported 80-90% of China's GDP was shut down. How long will your home reserves of food last when restaurants and stores close and truckers stop delivering goods? This outbreak could last for months and it's just starting.

This isn't just FUD for FUD's sake. People need to wake up to the severity of this virus and prep now. Even if it turns out to be mild at this point this is a risk to greater society because of disruption.

Chinese sources report that, outside of Hubei, the outbreak is over and everyone's getting back to work. Even in Hubei, and even in Wuhan itself, essential goods are and consistently have been available.

Which sources are you going to believe? Medical researchers potentially trying to warn the world, or sources aligned with the repeatedly demonstrated goal of the CCP to minimize this event by censoring and removing information, and providing misleading information, like a case rate when hospitals are turning people away and tests aren't being conducted?

Look at China's absurd response. There has never been a point in history where so many people were placed in lockdown by a single government. Over the flu???

I have a broad distrust of any information produced by the Chinese government. So I am suspicious of their claim that the outbreak is contained, yes - but I'm equally suspicious of their claims about infection rates, their claims about what actions the government is taking, and the implicit assumption that the actions they claim to be taking are necessary or warranted.

What I distrust a lot more is uncorroborated reports of divergent numbers, because there are just so many ways they could be wrong. For example, I saw one source claiming ironclad proof infection rates are 3x higher than reported - because a document they posted showed the number of positive coronavirus tests run in a day, and it was higher than the number of new cases reported that day. (And I'm extending the very generous assumption that the document was real, but how would anyone know if it wasn't?)

You should be reading published literature. The paper I'm citing was from either a hospital or University and had some 20 authors.

It seems hopeless... to even try and reply to the doomers with some sense of rationality.

It’s human nature to get excited in a way about the end of times. Like the preacher on the sidewalk in NYC holding a sign, except now everyone can get away with it and maybe they’re not crazy?!

A couple hundred cases per day (and decreasing) of a virus which will be significantly less deadly than an average flu season.

My family and I are heading to Disney World. Hopefully the lines will be shorter than average.

It won't take much to relight that fire. Assuming it's actually out.

I’ve seen reports of 80% mild, 15% hospital (mainly oxygen and managing secondary infections) and 5% critical care (ICU, some intubations). But, yes, even 5% could overrun hospital resources.

> It's unprecedented, but it's not the black plague by any stretch.

The disease may not be unprecedented, but the response to it certainly has been.

Will it? Obviously it could be due to all the precautions, but thus far no children 0-9 have died from the virus. The data shows mostly older people, and apparently those already ill. Thus far, that isn't to be compared with black plague because it had a much worse impact.

It already does. Stock markets are crashing. The tourism industry worldwide will take a hit. Olympic games may be canceled. Concerts and conventions are also canceled. If this thing keeps spreading cafes and restaurants will start loosing clients by the dozens, companies will have to rely heavily on remote working and who knows what other economic implications will ensue.

Sorry, that is not my definition of "testing civilization". Everything you mentioned is luxuries, or has workarounds (e.g. conference call instead of physical meeting).

Wake me up when there is a water, food, or housing shortage or significant amount of population infected and dying because of a global disease.

> Again, this is an unprecedent event. Nothing in recorded history has had the potential ramifications for society that this virus does, short perhaps of the black plague of the middle ages. This virus will test civilization.

There’ve been the SARS in 2002-2003 which infected 8000 people and killed 600 ones in 28 countries. It has had such a negligible impact on civilization that most people don’t even remember it.

Was discussing this with colleagues recently. The last big global event was the GFC, and before that WW2. Suspect the impact of COVID-19 will be closer to WW2 than the GFC, but truly hope I'm wrong. We are living through an interesting time, which is never fun.

Yes, absolutely. It is history in the making at a level that rarely happens, and that - unfortunately - makes you realize at a deep level why 'may you live in interesting times' is considered a curse, not a blessing. This will likely affect just about everybody on HN, their families, work environment and even you.

Yes.

Technology is going to be critical getting through this.

Schools will be shutdown; many people are going to have to work from home, possibly for extended periods of time.

Most people get their information from websites and social media.

Most of the manufacturing for medical supplies and equipment is in China.

Many tech companies of going to be hurt; COVID-19 may be the tech story of 2020.