Re:CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay ...
by pmoriarty on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @10:06PM
(#22430028)
"The virus has a ≈15% critical illness rate[1]. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the entire United States. They will very quickly be overwhelmed, exactly as they are in China, SK, Iran, Italy...the list is getting too long to keep up with. At that point the mortality rate approaches 15%"
It's not just an ICU severely ill people need, but artificial respirators. I haven't seen numbers on how many the US has, but it may not be enough.
In addition, this illness has the potential to take a significant amount of medical personnel out of commission, either directly by making them sick or killing them, through attrition as they overwork themselves and collapse (we've been seen all of the above happen in China).
So even if you get in to an ICU you could still be screwed.
That said, the numbers coming out of China are just not trustworthy right now. We'll have to wait and see how bad it is outside of China (assuming enough people get tested and the tests actually work, neither of which are a certainty yet).
It's not just an ICU severely ill people need, but artificial respirators. I haven't seen numbers on how many the US has, but it may not be enough.
In addition, this illness has the potential to take a significant amount of medical personnel out of commission, either directly by making them sick or killing them, through attrition as they overwork themselves and collapse (we've been seen all of the above happen in China).
So even if you get in to an ICU you could still be screwed.
That said, the numbers coming out of China are just not trustworthy right now. We'll have to wait and see how bad it is outside of China (assuming enough people get tested and the tests actually work, neither of which are a certainty yet).