Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

Re:Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus... by sciinfo on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @07:10AM (#22422256)

Here are estimates from MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College:

=> Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% (including those who don't go to see doctors)

=> Estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%

=> Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

The last line (18%) applies when the outbreak becomes prevalent in an area and overwhelm hospital capacity. If not contained, dozens of cities around the world may become Hubei!

Ref: Report 4 here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana....

From Report 6: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China."

Follow their Twitter at @MRC_Outbreak

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Re:Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus... by sciinfo on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @07:13AM (#22422268)

For people still thinking it is just another SARS, MERS, or Swine Flu, check out these graphs: https://ncov.r6.no/

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