Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

Re:Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus... by cm2187 on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @05:29AM (#22421860)

7 times a minuscule number may still be a minuscule number.

A 30yo male has a 0.18% probability to die that year. It's a small enough number that it is irrational to worry about it [1].

[1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

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Re:Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus... by scarmig on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @07:48AM (#22422422)

Would you say a 61yo male is significantly more likely to die than a 30yo male?

Because that's the age where the actuarial table is 7x worse for a man than at 30.

A couple hundred thousand dead here, another hundred thousand dead there, and soon we're talking about big numbers.

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Re:Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus... by jakeinspace on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @01:38PM (#22425826)

But a .2% mortality rate from COVID-19 means that if you're in your 20s and catch it, your odds of dying this year will have more than doubled! You think that's not worth worrying about? On a global scale that is millions of potential deaths beyond the prior statistical expectation.

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