COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likely Outbreak

Re:COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likel... by Rury on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @10:12PM (#22419940)

I think the OP intended dangerous to mean: likelihood of death if you catch the disease. Of which case, COVID19 is still looking to be ~20x more dangerous to catch than the flu.

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Re:COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likel... by stolenmerch on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @10:33PM (#22420049)

That certainly depends on where you are and your general health. But as it stands at the time of this writing, the mortality rate for COVID19 and Influenza are both about 2-3%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

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Re:COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likel... by bodhi_mind on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @09:40AM (#22423261)

Unless I'm reading this wrong, this is incorrect. The nih paper says that influenza deaths represent ~2% of all respiratory deaths, not a death rate.

The CDC estimates the death rate of influenza is at most 0.65% (61k deaths and 9.3MM infected) and at least 0.026% (12k deaths and 45MM infections)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

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Re:COVID19: U.S. Officials Warn Americans to Brace for Likel... by tdfx on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @03:50PM (#22427185)

Important to remember that older and immunocompromised people are not always the only vulnerable ones. The Spanish flu had an unusual mortality pattern of killing young adults [1]. It also had an overall morality rate around 2%, which caused multiple years of health catastrophe around the entire world. We don't have enough information to say whether COVID19 will match the characteristics of something like the Spanish flu, but the signs are ominous.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatali...

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