Re:Clinical characteristics of 50k patients with 2019-nCoV i...
by gwd on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @07:40AM
(#22412667)
> It takes people time to die. ...We've even been through this stage in Hubei, it started low if you just superficially look at figures.
Right, that's why I used Guangdong as an example, and not (say) Korea or Japan, and compared cases 2 weeks ago vs deaths now. How long a lag time do you think is better?
Re:Clinical characteristics of 50k patients with 2019-nCoV i...
by aaron695 on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @02:10AM
(#22421013)
Hard to say. 4 weeks at least I think. 4 weeks to start to snuff it. But it will be longer for many people. It's a good question, that's in part what the OP is trying to work out.
Look at the (ongoing) deaths on the Diamond Princess
https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices...
We are you contradicting what we know? This needs a good reason. We've even been through this stage in Hubei, it started low if you just superficially look at figures.
"In the early stages of the SARS epidemic, health officials estimated the mortality rate at less than 4%. More recently, officials have cited rates in the 6% to 7% range. Today's SARS figures from the WHO—6,903 cumulative cases and 495 deaths—point to a case-fatality ratio of 7.2%. But WHO officials note that this calculation underestimates the rate, since some currently ill patients will die of the disease."
(2003) http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates...