The odds of anyone at the top of the hiring funnel getting an offer are really poor, but the odds for people with referrals are much higher.

The chances of getting a conversation with a recruiter and interview with a referral is almost 100%. But even after the initial interview, the odds of getting hired are tiny. That's the point I was trying to make.

Going through the interview process and just last week I was rejected from Google with a referral and without even getting a recruiter conversation. Caught me by surprise because with current education/work exp. I had no issue reaching the "talk to a human being" step with other FAANG companies... a bit disheartening but mainly just makes me wonder what Google is looking for at that point in the process that's different from other top companies.

Does something about this sound wrong to googlers?

No, all your referrals getting rejected is a running joke at Google. Often they get rejected even without an interview. In my opinion it is a bit evil to refer people who are unlikely to pass the interview, I always warn everyone I refer about it.