Re:Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rises in Japan
by logicchains on Saturday February 15, 2020 @08:42AM
(#22335232)
If we had historical data on pneumonia and flu deaths there, we could compare current rates to that, and if the current rate was significantly higher than usual then it'd be reasonable to count the excess as COVID-19 deaths. I don't know if that data exists though.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rises in Japan
by ericlavigne on Sunday February 16, 2020 @02:10PM
(#22343214)
An NTD reporter had a similar idea, but focused on total deaths in the city of Wuhan rather than just flu-like deaths. A funeral home staff member said that deaths per day was 4-5 times higher than before this epidemic started, but that only 6% of those deaths were labelled as "confirmed cases" that would count toward the official numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYYV1B1lRKY
Assuming a similar rate of undercounting across other funeral homes in the city, that would put the real death count so far at about 14,000. This is despite extraordinary efforts by the Chinese government to prevent the spread of this virus.
(NTD has an axe to grind on this issue, but they have a reputation for factual honesty. I trust NTD's numbers far more than those of the Chinese government. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/ )