I talk to Japanese workers in various domestic and foreign firms operating in Japan almost every day. Consensus on this topic seems to be that the Japanese approach is favoured in times where goals are clearly understood and agreed upon. In such circumstances Japan's superlative skills in quality, incremental improvement, planning and harmonious group-work will come to the fore.

At other times, including perhaps these last 2-3 decades, it is more valuable to try and mostly fail in the interest of discovery. The Long Tail, above the Bell Curve. At such times as these Japan generally just holds and waits. For instance, the Edo period lasted 250 years, with very little change. Meanwhile, from 1600, Europe and the New World were changing like gangbusters.

>> I think we should look at it 50 years later...

Fifty years is a fairly long time to make predictions, but I'd argue that you'll only see Japan having re-emerged as leader in 2070, should a clear new order have already become apparent. If not, they'll certainly still be waiting patiently with serious intent.