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Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by Aperocky on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @04:42PM (#22313120)
You’re right, except cases are not in exponential growth for a period of time already if you’ve been following closely. Right now it’s more or less linear
Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by tristanj on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @05:41PM (#22313605)
EDIT: Hubei Province added 14,840 new cases today, my earlier analysis isn't right anymore. I've left it below.

Infected case growth has slowed down primarily because of the quarantine of Hubei province. The virus has up to a two week incubation period, and today two weeks later we're able to result of this quarantine. Case growth in Hubei has slowed down.

The issue now is that every major city in China has local infection clusters, and these infection clusters are growing exponentially.

https://i.imgur.com/lQcyqAX.jpg

Even if the net case growth rate is decreasing, the situation is less under control than ever before. Look at China's actions; they're past containment methods and now acting on mitigation.

Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by KallDrexx on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @05:06PM (#22313326)
Just keep in mind that it's been admitted that China is strapped for testing kits and turning people away without testing them. So it's possible that it only turned linear because the number of testing kits available per day is linear.
Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by downerending on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @04:50PM (#22313179)
Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavi...

Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by jnurmine on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @06:21PM (#22313871)
Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed.

The Wikipedia page says:

"On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."

Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by downerending on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @06:26PM (#22313891)
Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by whoevercares on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @10:01PM (#22314988)
I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!
Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by Filligree on Wednesday February 12, 2020 @05:32PM (#22313549)
Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so.

Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.

Re:MWC 2020 canceled over coronavirus health concerns by totalZero on Thursday February 13, 2020 @02:15AM (#22315936)
These numbers come from an overwhelmed, propagandist third-world authoritarian government.

It is surprising to me that anyone would simply accept them as fact.