I'm not the smart and well-informed someone you seek, but FWIW I suspect that the infection rate is vastly under-reported, simply because mild cases resolve without "official" notice. Deaths on the other hand are nearly always noticed, and although I'll totally buy the theory that the chinese government are under-reporting deaths, I think we'll ultimately find out that a far greater proportion of mild infections has gone unreported.

All that to say, I have hope that this bug is less dangerous than it seems right now.