My point here was that the China data is probably biased because the medical system there is overtaxed, but outside of China it isn't. Therefore, estimating mortality based on non-China data seems safer, and no one outside of China has died so far.
If I take your low end mortality estimate, 20%, and apply that to the number of non-China cases 6 days ago (12), you get only a 6% probability of all of these people surviving. Note that this already contains a lot of assumptions (going back 6 days, taking your lowest mortality estimate) that work in favor of your alarmism.
I think that "going back 6 days" is insufficient, so your conclusion of a 6% probability is unsupported. Given the extreme state of paranoia around the world (eg. authorities testing people coming out of airplanes) it is likely that cases outside China are detected very early after the onset of symptoms. As such, death, when it takes place, will probably take more than 6 days after a confirmed case is detected.
In fact, the studies in The Lancet document cases of patients that take much more than 6 days to die.
Everybody is taking this seriously, but playing prophet of doom is really shitty and has all sorts of potential negative consequences in the real world.
You tried to point out 1 inconsistency, and I replied back saying it wasn't an inconsistency ("0 actual vs 2 expected is statistically insignificant.") It's too early to tell if the CFR outside China will differ from the CFR in China.
True, the data is biased.
«the 20-56% mortality rate claimed based on guessing N=6 is inconsistent with the mortality rates outside of China, where no one has died so far»
It's not statistically inconsistent. When China had 100 cases confirmed, they had reported only 2 deaths. Now there are 100 cases outside China, so statistically we should expect 2. 0 actual vs 2 expected is statistically insignificant. Also the rest of the world is so much more prepared after the wake-up alarm call from China that out of the 100 confirmed outside China, they are probably receiving superior healthcare than overwhelmed Chinese hospitals. I would expect the mortality rate outside China to be slightly inferior.
It also means though, that the first death outside China should happen soon. I predict in the next week.