Ask HN: If you knew this was a bubble, what would you do differently?

Re:Ask HN: If you knew this was a bubble, what would you do ... by nostrademons on Monday February 14, 2011 @08:13PM (#2219573)

7-9B for Zynga isn't that unreasonable. The valuation for Phillip Morris is 107B, and they sell rolled-up tobacco. Starbucks is 25B, selling coffee. Simple things that are highly addictive basically give you a license to print money, and are valued accordingly by stockholders.

The warning signs for the first dot-com bust were when businesses whose only competitive advantage was that they lost money on any sale got funded. Things like Value America, or Pets.com, or AllAdvantage.com. When you strip away the "here, we'll give you money to use our product so we can gain market share", there was essentially no reason to use those over existing alternatives. Giving away money is not a sustainable business model, hence bubble.

By that standard, the only major e-property I'd be worried about today is Bing...

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Re:Ask HN: If you knew this was a bubble, what would you do ... by pestaa on Tuesday February 15, 2011 @11:46AM (#2221937)

I'd be really interested why you highlighted Bing. Its services, especially the maps, seem to have potential.

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Re:Ask HN: If you knew this was a bubble, what would you do ... by nostrademons on Tuesday February 15, 2011 @08:38PM (#2224459)

I highlighted it because of Bing Cashback, which is exactly the sort of money-losing stunt that dot-com businesses pulled at the height of the boom to gain market share.

Microsoft, at least, has the cash that they can afford to blow a few hundred million for nothing, and the smarts to discontinue the program when it's obvious it doesn't work.

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