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Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @03:40PM (#22195304)
Running the official numbers, mortality rate is less than 3%. If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections, mortality is less than 1%.

Unless you are in a sensitive age group or have other health problems, data suggests you're most likely to get over it as a regular flu.

It's not all perfect and is worse than a regular flu, but especially now after the announcement some people may way over-stress themselves which doesn't do good to your immune system.

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by saberdancer on Friday January 31, 2020 @05:24AM (#22200537)
You cannot calculate mortality rate as most people haven't recovered fully. We have 3% mortality rate at the moment, but we do not know how many of those infected are still in early stages and what will be the final number of deaths.

If we looked at deaths against reported recoveries than the rate is much higher (I am guessing a lot of recoveries are not reported).

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by ecneladis on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:04PM (#22195554)
These calculations assume that no one else infected dies. Seems overly optimistic, especially given that ~1200 patients are in serious or critical condition.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:52PM (#22196150)
I try to keep that in mind, but I also keep in mind that many people do not report to the hospital when sick.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by krageon on Friday January 31, 2020 @05:16AM (#22200492)
The hospital is where you go when you are dying for most people. I don't think it's a stretch to say that most dying people will be in the hospital.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by andrewflnr on Thursday January 30, 2020 @03:53PM (#22195453)
1% mortality would still be pretty substantial as these things go.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:24PM (#22195810)
That's true. Still as someone with anxieties I find it a useful perspective to assess personal threat level.

First reaction is "I need to avoid becoming infected at all costs". However, the costs are steep. An extreme plan to “sit at home with a month’s worth of supplies” seems plausible, but it would not be healthy to reduce movement so much and if everyone suddenly starts doing that there will be issues with food availability in the area (I live in HK).

If I am statistically so unlikely to die from this infection, I am going to take measures that prevent me from spreading it to someone who isn’t, but I won’t e.g. panic and call police if someone without a mask is near me.

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by bra4you on Friday January 31, 2020 @03:52AM (#22200140)
Yes. But not threatening for the human population at all.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by munificent on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:10PM (#22195622)
> If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections

Shouldn't you also plug in estimated unreported fatalities too?

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:13PM (#22195675)
Are you aware of any such estimates?

Death is more difficult to hide than fever.

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by munificent on Thursday January 30, 2020 @05:20PM (#22196451)
No, but in the absence of that, it seems strange to unpin the denominator while leaving the numerator fixed and then presume that that tells you anything useful.
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @05:59PM (#22196883)
Setting number of infected humans at 30k, there can be as many as 300 deaths for mortality to be limited to 1%.

Unfortunately, both numbers are fluid, but the assumption is that death count is less so. If the number of deaths is underreported by orders of magnitude then my argument would not stand of course.

EDIT: I consider the number of deaths unlikely to be very underreported based on personal communication with folks in China and HK. There is a fair amount of panic on social media, but “someone I knew died, it seems related to the new virus and deaths may be underreported” so far seems not among the things people panic about. Most panic (some of which is being blown out of proportion for hype and metrics by less than scrupulous sources) appears to be fueled by other things: number of people admitted to the hospital, possible hospital staff infections, and others panicking.

Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by klhjweoiru on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:30PM (#22195900)
The 3% number is with severe cases (aparently 20% of the cases) treated in ICU. What happens when you ran out of ICU beds?
Re:WHO declares coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency by goblin89 on Thursday January 30, 2020 @04:48PM (#22196099)
I am ready to change my position on this, but not until I see any proof that only deaths in ICUs are reported by China as part of the statistic.