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Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by heisenbergs on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @05:30PM (#22186674)
simple back of the envelope calculation: in 3 years time, they will have 3 giga factories (+1 in upstate new york), each of which should be scale to 500k cars. at an average resale price of $50k (might be a little lower, but let's keep it simple), that's $75B in revenue. at a 10% profit margin, that's $7.5B profit. let's presume a 20x factor as a growth stock, you have an evaluation of $150B, which it's currently trending to.

This is excluding any other growth opportunities (self driving, solar, battery storage, drive train). just plain car sales...

Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by saghm on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @05:46PM (#22186813)
This also assumes that there's demand for all of these $50,000 cars, which isn't necessarily the case.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by mitchellgoffpc on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @06:25PM (#22187156)
The base Model 3 costs $40k in the US, and even without any extra options at all, it’s a great car to drive IMO! (Although it IS a lot more expensive in foreign markets)
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by JeffL on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @06:13PM (#22187067)
So far, it seems that Teslas are so great that they sell themselves. The more Teslas on the road, the more demand gets created for Teslas as more and more people are exposed to them.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by joshualross on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @11:41PM (#22188895)
Currently, the demand is still strong enough that the wait time on a new TM3 is 4-8 weeks. That may decrease, but right now Tesla can't make them fast enough.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by AtlasBarfed on Friday January 31, 2020 @12:52AM (#22199436)
The Y will have more demand. Crossover rules the us market
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by lazyjones on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @06:09PM (#22187034)
I'm sure there is, if you consider all the climate politics ramping up. Politicians, officials, other virtue signallers will prefer to be seen in EV soon.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by AtlasBarfed on Friday January 31, 2020 @12:51AM (#22199431)
Battery cost is plummeting, Tesla is at the forefront of that. They can collect all the extra margin, or drop prices as needed
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by sf_rob on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @06:49PM (#22187349)
As you mentioned that's marginal profit. You'd have to include estimates of their other costs/liabilities before estimating future market cap.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by xkjkls on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @06:56PM (#22187427)
Why do you assume they can sell all those cars, when they can’t even sell all their current capacity of cars? They’ve been able to produce 500,000 cars for awhile, yet only delivering 367,000 this year.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by zaroth on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @10:59PM (#22188729)
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by xkjkls on Thursday January 30, 2020 @12:03AM (#22189004)
Extraordinarily strange, given that inventories haven’t changed to near the same degree.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by zaroth on Thursday January 30, 2020 @07:48AM (#22190948)
I’m sorry but that is also not true. Inventory is reported as Days of Sales, and was 30 days in Q1 and has decreased every quarter to now just 11 days of sales.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by m463 on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @09:14PM (#22188308)
They could sell a lot of semis and cybertrucks if they were ready.

And just think, they could put a dashboard on the model 3 and sales would probably double.

Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by xkjkls on Thursday January 30, 2020 @12:04AM (#22189006)
Neither of those cars exist.
Re:Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4 by AtlasBarfed on Friday January 31, 2020 @12:55AM (#22199447)
The Tesla semi is a whole new game in battery production. 300kwhr packs? If tech gets good, Tesla could find buyers for 1000 kwhr packs.