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Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by bryanlarsen on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @10:44AM (#22170393)
Like solar & wind, nuclear also needs supplementing with peaker plants. Nuclear can be used for peaking, but current designs cannot, and nobody is going to pay the crazy costs of nuclear just to have it idle 23 hours a day as a peaker.

And storage for renewables is a last resort. Instead of storage:

1. build in areas with reliable winds (offshore trade winds)

2. better interconnection ("the wind is always blowing somehwere")

3. over-provisioning. If you build 3 times as much wind power as you need, it's still a lot cheaper than nuclear and you need a lot less storage.

4. storage. It's expensive, but if you did 1-3 correctly, you don't need much of it.

Nuclear is safe, but it's also crazy expensive and takes decades to build.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by batmansmk on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @11:50AM (#22171133)
Scale is missing in your analytsis. For instance in New England, the peak demand goes from 15GWh (average) to 16.5GWh down to 10GWh. Solar and wind on the other hand, need supplemental for 100% of its installed capacity the day there is no wind...

In France, 70% of the electricity is nuclear, 15% is hydro, pumped by the excess nuclear power generated at during the night.

Now for your arguments:

1. Wind goes from 0 to 50mph at sea. No reliable wind corridor exists. Even if Market Street in San Francisco makes me think otherwise frequently :)

2. The concept of wind proliferation has been debunked, at least on the European level. We built a network between Denmark, Germany, Portugal and Italy. It doesn't work.

3. If you don't have wind, putting 3 wind turbines won't help you more. Germany learned it the hard way where their CO2 emission flat lined since 2009 instead of going down despite their all in on the wind and solar energy. If you install 3 times more than what you need, you also have the side effect of making your renewable energy 3 times more carbone intensive. It kills solar as a viable, scalable option for instance.

4. Yes that would be the required breakthough to change the game. Right now batteries production pollute way too much and cost too much to be climate efficient.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by bazzert on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @01:21PM (#22172385)
Great points. “The damage done by these wind installations is out of all proportion to the benefit,” https://www.ft.com/content/d8b9b0bc-04a6-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e...
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by tenacious_tuna on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:17PM (#22173606)
Heya,

Do you have either a non-paywall version of that article or an alternative article with a similar view? I'm curious what it says, but I can't read it with the paywall in place.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by bazzert on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @09:16AM (#22180673)
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by kardos on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @11:19AM (#22170759)
> nobody is going to pay the crazy costs of nuclear just to have it idle 23 hours a day as a peaker.

Are we anywhere near the limits of what can be done with time-of-use pricing? If we flatten the "duck curve" then nuclear is a good match.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by throwaway100773 on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @11:34AM (#22170944)
You would need utility scale storage to flatten the load curve. The peaks and super peaks are not going away until there is a viable storage mechanism with enough capacity. We are talking significant changes in demand between even the early afternoon and the super peak in almost all load areas (pjm California ercot). The other alternative is a massive buildout or behind the meter solar which theoretically could solve this issue.
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by DiogenesKynikos on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @11:39AM (#22171005)
What the above poster is suggesting is adjusting demand dynamically based on price. That requires consumers to throttle their own usage (probably using automated systems that know the real-time price of electricity). You can run the dishwasher or charge your car or cool your home when electricity is cheap.
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by throwaway100773 on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @02:36PM (#22184883)
I’m not sure there is enough play in demand elasticity to affect significant change relative to the amount of load difference you see. Furthermore the peaks are highly weather sensitive. Would love to be proven wrong though.
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by DiogenesKynikos on Saturday February 01, 2020 @09:33PM (#22214780)
There's not much play in demand at the moment, but there could be if more systems were aware of the price of electricity. A/C can be turned off, cars can stop charging, dishes can wait, etc.

Variation in renewable energy generation can be reduced by averaging over larger geographic areas. Wind speeds and cloud cover vary much more on local scales than on continent-wide scales.

A combination of demand adjustment and linking of power generation over large geographic areas can reduce the need for energy storage.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by manfredo on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @01:09PM (#22172198)
The daily fluctuations in demand aren't as large as this comment makes it seem. Usually, demand changes by ~25% between peak demand and minimum demand [1]. Excess energy produced during non-peak demand can be used for carbon sequestration, desalination, hydrogen production, or any other intensive industry.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=830

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by marouo on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @12:52PM (#22171948)
We don't have enough uran for it.

We would need to develop a wavesomethingreactor which doesn't exist yet.

Nuclear will not solve our problem.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by pmontra on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @12:55PM (#22171992)
Nuclear is safe until it isn't, then you lose a large area of the country around the power plant (Chernobyl, Fukushima.) Personally I don't think it's worth the risk, plus the building times you write about and the costs of decommissioning.
Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by bazzert on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @01:26PM (#22172443)
Fukushima, "1 death from radiation, 2202 from the evacuation"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disa...

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by pmontra on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @02:39PM (#22173256)
As awful as it can sound it's not about the deaths. It's about people not being able to enter that area basically forever, on their time scale.

If Fukushima was in New Yersey the USA would have lost New York City.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by beerandt on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @11:00PM (#22177270)
I'm starting to think the permanent evacuation zones are based more on arbitrary scare tactics than actual danger, at least after the acute event is under control. Maybe you don't want to live there. But entering doesn't seem to be the death sentence it's made out to be, based on the people that never left Chernobyl and returning population in Japan.

If global warming is as certain and as dangerous as what's being claimed, the risk of contaminating a few thousand acres (or even miles) with radioactivity is certainly worth it to save the world.

Plus Fukushima basically disproved the China syndrome scare we've been fed for 40+ years.

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by keanzu on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @03:34AM (#22178555)
"This solar farm in the southern state of Tamil Nadu in India has a capacity of 648 megawatts and covers an area of 10 square kilometres." [1]

That's 10sqkm that's been lost basically forever, or as long as it humans require solar power for only 648MW during the day when the sun is shining.

Fukushima Daiichi was 5,306 MW and generated that 24hrs a day.

[1] https://www.originenergy.com.au/blog/5-largest-solar-farms-i...

Re:Deep Decarbonization: A Realistic Way Forward on Climate ... by bazzert on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @09:13AM (#22180622)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/03/11...

Michael Shellenberger is one of my favorite writers on this topic. The radiation around Fukushima is less than the naturally occurring radiation in Colorado.