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Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by kenneth on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:06AM (#22167395)
Statement and statistical model of the epidemic from HKU researchers. They're quite pessimistic.

• Likely ~75k infections in China already

• Chongqing likely the next big city to experience full uncontained outbreak

• Drastic measures required to prevent full pandemic, including a drastic reduction in mobility (no large group gathering, no travel, etc)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwXMPsbxFfo

Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by internet_user on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:41AM (#22167586)
Thank you for posting that video. He sounds most reasonable and with zero slogans, and even though with restraint he certainly thinks this can spin out of control.
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by xorfish on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:19AM (#22167481)
A positive effect of a higher number of infection is, that it would reduce the fatality rate of the virus.
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by kenneth on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:33AM (#22167538)
Indeed, but there's also very credible rumors saying that the number of dead patients in Wuhan is severely underreported.

For example, this video shows someone walking around a hospital in Wuhan, where you see dead bodies in the hallways just sitting around.

That doesn't happen when you only have 100 deaths in the province. That happens when you're so overwhelmed with dead patients that you just can't deal with it fast enough.

If this is true, which I'm inclined to believe, then we're very likely looking at thousands of deaths already.

https://twitter.com/ezracheungtoto/status/122064100006384844...

Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by internet_user on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:39AM (#22167578)
Nobody blockades 10 cities and quarantines 50 million people over 100 deaths.

Shanghai closed all non essential businesses. Schools closed until Feb 17th. Hongkong is in state of emergency.

Several military medical battalions have been deployed overnight in China.

This is not a drill.

Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by orf on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @04:06AM (#22167699)
Isn’t it more likely that they are asleep than dead?
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C... by Piskvorrr on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @04:57AM (#22167925)
That's the thing: we don't know. We don't even have data to make a guesstimate. That's the scary part: we can't tell if that is more likely.