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Re:World’s consumption of materials hits record 100bn tonnes... by jjoonathan on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @12:28PM (#22119743)
Taking things into account and shaping our policies accordingly means making a prediction about future supply. Predictions of impending supply exhaustion have historically had a very, very poor track record. Distrusting them is not a predictive failure, even if they are guaranteed to come true eventually, because timescale matters.

As for "we may find a better use down the road" -- sure, but for the purposes of resource planning, that statement is completely useless. You have to pick a probability, time scale, and value for your position to have meaning from the perspective of resource planning, and not coincidentally those are the exact prerequisites for taking a market position on the subject.

There are many things markets do poorly, but cutting through the bullshit, forcing you to formulate a meaningful position, and rewarding/punishing you appropriately is something they do very well.

Re:World’s consumption of materials hits record 100bn tonnes... by simmanian on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @01:52PM (#22120694)
GP mentions that "a river that a factory uses as a dumping ground until the waters are toxic and everything in it dies is exactly an example of a resource treated as limitless." In your opinion, is the market properly functioning to correct these behaviors? Where is the market when all the world's trash are getting dumped in our rivers and oceans?
Re:World’s consumption of materials hits record 100bn tonnes... by jjoonathan on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @03:05PM (#22121448)
That's an untaxed externality, which is one of the many things that markets do not handle well. There are others.

Here's the difference: the river is not being treated as an unlimited resource, it's being treated as a free resource. Nobody genuinely thinks the river can dilute unlimited toxic waste, but someone does genuinely think they won't be held accountable for killing the fish. In contrast, nobody in the oil business could expect to "get away with" ignoring peak oil, because they could not expect their customers to buy products that they were unable to produce from oil that did not exist.

Markets do not address global warming, but markets do address "peak oil," and the staggeringly bad suggestions that get passed off as wisdom every time people start talking about "peak oil" type problems remind me why we put up with markets in the first place.

Re:World’s consumption of materials hits record 100bn tonnes... by coldtea on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @07:32PM (#22123630)
>Taking things into account and shaping our policies accordingly means making a prediction about future supply. Predictions of impending supply exhaustion have historically had a very, very poor track record.

"Historically" we have been caring about such things for about one or at best two centuries, most of them with primitive technological means to gauge resources supply, so I'm not so convinced about said "track record".

It's not like we got it wrong for millennia. It's more like some warned ahead of time after we've started looking relatively recently historically, and because they got it wrong, we assume like the people in the boy and the wolf story that no such thing is ever possible (or possible to predict within some accuracy).