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Re:Tesla races past $100B in market valuation by mediaman on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @12:16PM (#22119580)
ARR is not a synonym for "revenue." Tesla's total revenue was $6.3bn for the last reported quarter, an annual run rate of $25.2bn. That's all sales, nearly all of which are sales of new vehicles.

Sales of durable new vehicles does not fit the definition of "annual recurring revenue" by any stretch of the imagination. ARR is valued highly because it implies steady revenue from each customer. Less the churn rate, it makes for a super steady long tail of cash flows. Once you've made a sale, you can count on that sale again the next year, and success of new sales builds on that existing base of recurring sales. These kinds of revenues tend to be more resistant to recessions, changes in preferences, etc., versus churning through new customers every year.

Car companies are the exact opposite. Sell a car? Great, you have to sell another car to someone else next year just to tread water. Your customers don't buy new cars every year. Maybe in five to ten years they'll come back to you.

That's why ARR is worth so much more, and why a durable goods maker does not get a high valuation because of their ARR. They're different business models.

In short, one can't justify Tesla's revenue valuation multiple based on multiples of ARR subscription companies.

Re:Tesla races past $100B in market valuation by trhway on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @12:26PM (#22119716)
"annualized run rate" is useful for growing companies and has nothing to do with "recurring". Why would you use "recurring" in the context of Tesla?!
Re:Tesla races past $100B in market valuation by mediaman on Wednesday January 22, 2020 @12:54PM (#22120064)
ARR most commonly refers to recurring revenues, especially in the context of premium valuation multiples on revenue. Annual run rate is usually used for small businesses trying to extrapolate out a monthly revenue number. For quarterly publicly traded 10Q numbers, most analysts just say "annualized". But, that's all semantics.

Also, 10x sales is out of line for big tech companies. Most are more like 5-7x. True, a little higher than Tesla's 4x, but their economics are very dissimilar. Apple, which is typically trotted out as a "manufacturer", actually offloads all the lower margin manufacturing to other companies, and their margins show it.