In addition to buybacks, the Fed has been buying treasuries like crazy[1] since September 2019 (they claim it's totally not Quantitative Easing) - so lot's of fed dollars are juicing the stock market rn.
1. $100-billion-per-month worth of "not-QE" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-stu...
My prediction - someone's guess will turn out to be right and they'll be the new investing star for the coming decade.
"Nobody knows nothing."
The research using yield curve inversion as a leading indicator of recession is based on the yield curve remaining inverted for a full quarter -- which it didn't do.
Also, the yield curve inversion is a strong indicator, but not a perfect one, and some of the recessions it indicated happened as far as 34 months out (according to some Credit Suisse report I can't really find anymore).
We're sure to hit a recession at some point, but it's really hard to guess when.
Seems like the article is trying really hard to imply that the 50 basic point increase has already occurred, even though it has not occurred.
I think we've been juicing the economy for many years so when we have a recession it could be more severe than typical because we've been propping up the economy. We have 0% interest rates in many countries, so the actual economic growth absent that should be much lower. We foolishly had big tax cuts aimed at wealthy people with the trump tax cuts, so when we have a recession and need to counter that with more stimulus spending we'll be facing an increasing budget deficit. if we cancel the billionaire/millionaire trump/republican tax plan it will serve as another negative stimulus on the economy. Just like the us has been reducing the power of its democratic institutions the last few years, we've been borrowing from tomorrow (with unnecessary tax cuts).
I'm pretty convinced the Democrats will be toast as a party by 2030 once they get saddled with imploding the economy by no fault of their own other than bad timing.
The effect of federalizing $3 trillion a year of the economy, raising corporate taxes to far above what Sweden has, and 70% marginal personal tax rates probably won’t be “no fault of their own.”
> According to LaVorgna, since 1948, the economy has always entered or been in a recession when the unemployment rate increases 50 basis points (or 0.50 percentage point) from its trailing cyclical low.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a...
Taken with the yield curve inversion in 2019, and other leading indicators, it appears the US economy is headed for the first recession in over 10 years. If previous trends hold, it's within 12-18 months away.
Oddly enough, the stock market typically rallies from the yield curve inversion right into the next recession. So there's money to be made, but it's kind of like trying to gather nickels on the tracks as the locomotive barreling down on you blows its whistle.
However, policymakers will continue to tout the relatively low unemployment rate and booming stock market right into the recession (which can only be declared months after its start).