tbh given the rarity of 737NGs plunging to the ground [on fire, if low quality social media videos are to be believed] shortly after takeoff, the ADS-B signal ceasing whilst the aircraft was still on course and wreckage being spread over a wide area which aren't the usual results of engine failure or improbably poor piloting, and the context of the aircraft flying later than scheduled past military forces on high alert, I think some sort of foul play or military misjudgement is the null hypothesis to be ruled out...