Neither did early agriculturists.
> early attempts at agricultural states (often in these same locations) seem much more fragile
That's because there are no hunter-gatherer states. Hunter-gatherer cultures are much too fragile to support the societal structures needed for even primitive states.
And to make sure it worked to your benefit (as the king) it was important that they farmed a limited number of things which were easy to keep track of, and easy to transport, and hence easy to tax. Like wheat or barley or rice, which you can inspect any time, and which ripens on a predictable date, on which your soldiers can show up to collect the rent. (And unlike potatoes.)
https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/10/14/book-review-against-th...
The comments there are generally of high quality, and you'll find some good counterpoints to the book's claims.
I guess it's hard to have numbers, but early attempts at agricultural states (often in these same locations) seem much more fragile. Most collapsed within a few generations, to disease of humans or crops, or to weather, we can't know.