Re:Google Will Collapse
by thatsenough on Saturday January 04, 2020 @07:35PM
(#21958745)
> A bit dated
It does seem dated, but the author has continued to edit it since it was originally written. He's got stuff from 2018 and 2019 in there.
> massive loss-leaders like YouTube
Citation needed.
Citations are a bit tricky, since Google keeps YouTube’s financials secret, but from what I hear, it’s been in the red ever since the adpocalypse, and the new COPPA-rules will not help, since all content targeting children will now also be demonetised.
I thought a recent article here said YouTube passed the break-even point in 2015
They might have been profitable before the adpocalypse, but I highly doubt that’s still the case. They lost a huge chunk of ad revenue then, and will be losing another huge chunk with the new COPPA rules forbidding them from serving ads on videos targetting children.
Combine that with a massive rise in staffing costs from all the new "Trust and Safety" people they’ve added.
Of course, Alphabet are keeping the actual figures under wraps, but I’d consider it highly unlikely that it’s looking good.
I consider it highly unlikely it's looking bad.
Playing ads on the internet at scale (where your control you content costs) is profitable else no other companies would not be doing it.
Think of companies like tubi breaking into profitability in isolation without anywhere near the scale that YouTube operates at. https://www.businessinsider.com/tubi-tv-profitability-avod-o...
Maybe Google won’t collapse outright, but they are facing challenges on a lot of fronts. Everything from employees unionising, antitrust legislation both at home and abroad, massive loss-leaders like YouTube, and advertising market challenges.
Worst of all is probably the reputational damage. They used to be the darling of technologists everywhere, but countless privacy- and monopolist scandals have taken their toll. There’s a growing anti-Google sentiment, and once lost, reputation is hard to recover.