Finkel review [0], page 201, Levelised Cost of Electricity in 2020 estimates solar at ~91 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal.
So you were right that I was using an unsourced number. Now I've sourced it and am revising it to 20%. And I have a source that says if we just twiddle our thumbs for 10 years we should get a much better deal, with no extra cost given we produce somewhere between 1 and 5% of the worlds emissions depending on how we account for exports.
[0] https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/independent-re...
A future where (according to exactly the same reference!) solar will be cheaper than coal by 2030 (~61 $/MWh vs ~76 $/MWh supercritical coal).
I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (= A$51-63/MWh).
> I'd also note that this report was done in 2017, and the LCOE for solar has decreased more rapidly than expected. This Lazard report done only a year later puts large scale solar at US$36-43/MWh (= A$51-63/MWh).
If it started to make commercial sense to build solar in 2017 then it really doesn't make sense to change anything we're doing after these bushfires since any problem will will resolve itself. The underlining point is that this crisis isn't a catalyst to rethink our energy policy. The two things just aren't realistically linked. We don't emit enough carbon for it to be relevant for global pollution.
Which is why you start transitioning now, so we get a resilient energy system.
it really doesn't make sense to change anything we're doing after these bushfires since any problem will will resolve itself
No, because the current government actually wants to build new coal fired power stations and open new coal mines.
The underlining point is that this crisis isn't a catalyst to rethink our energy policy.
Yes you keep parroting this line. But I noticed you ignored the tourism industry costs above as well as the arguments about how successful the German transition had been.
In NSW tourism is worth $40B[2]. The situation is similar there.
Say this costs between 10 and 20% of that. That is roughlt $10B in direct costs this year alone.
Additionally your 10% additional cost of energy is nonsense. Australia hasn't had a functioning energy policy is 10 years, which is the primary reason costs are so high. Any kind of policy which both sides of politics agree on (at least roughly!) will provide investment certainty and cut that cost.
[1] https://www.business.vic.gov.au/tourism-industry-resources/t...
[2] https://invest.nsw.gov.au/sector-opportunities/tourism