Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016)
by nine_k on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:37PM
(#21893808)
I would hazard to say that in most realistic cases, causes' influence over the summary effect is described approximately by the power law. Hence the 80/20 principle.
Corollary 1: you can simplify your model of reality by dropping some of the weaker effects, and replacing a host of them by a simple constant. You can even just look at the single most important factor and ignore the rest when making estimates.
Corollary 2: You should always remember that your simplified model is simplified, and realize how much it is simplified. You should expect complexity of detail, and be ready to let go of the neat and simple view if you want a more correct view.
Corollary 1: you can simplify your model of reality by dropping some of the weaker effects, and replacing a host of them by a simple constant. You can even just look at the single most important factor and ignore the rest when making estimates.
Corollary 2: You should always remember that your simplified model is simplified, and realize how much it is simplified. You should expect complexity of detail, and be ready to let go of the neat and simple view if you want a more correct view.