I don't agree with folks who say everyone should just go to trade school. There are lots of good, high-demand jobs that require a college degree. That is also part of the reality that kids need to understand. My kids will start SAT prep in middle school and depending on demonstrated potential, we might encourage trying for a top-tier college. We don't intend to pay for school, because we think debt creates motivation. If either of them demonstrate an interest in law or medicine, I suspect we'll encourage them to go to a state school for undergrad like my wife and I did, because people care more about the terminal degree. Either way, we think it's important to take a gap year to mature after high school. (My wife did; I wish I had done the same.) At the end of the day, a lot depends on the kids. At the same time, my wife and I are not ashamed to be Asian parents. There is a lot you can do to guide, mold, guilt, manipulate, wheedle, and prod your children into making good decisions, and we intend to do it.
I mean it obviously depends on what happens a decade from now. I’m imagining some mix of taking some amount in loans with us covering living expenses. My wife worked through Iowa, and I feel like I would’ve done better had my parents made me spend my summer earnings from programming on tuition. But my older kid is so self motivated it may not matter.
I ask for a particular reason: I think you're easily one of the smartest guys in this forum, and your children are likely to be similarly smart.
So, there are two games out there for us to play -- 1) as you say, the HVAC technicians and roofers who actually make a pretty comfortable salary and 2) the uber smarts, the googlers and the founders. Even a liberal arts degree from a big name A-tier school is worth it for them, for the connections they'll make and the prestige they'll be set with for all of their life. So 2 is actually a pretty good bet. And it's why I encourage my nieces (who seem very smart) to do the whole college acceptance dance (learn to play piano, do some sports, and everything else to secure a ticket to Harvard) and the rest is easy. Don't you do the same with your kids?