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Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by Ozzie_osman on Friday December 27, 2019 @12:06PM (#21892463)
I agree with the article in general, but that said, I do think a lot of successful people are successful because they are highly opinionated in black-and-white ways. Coming across people like this in life can be frustrating whether they tend to be right or wrong. I've definitely known and worked with a few people who were black-and-white thinkers and abstracted away and ignored a lot of second order effects that could negate their opinion, but had such good intuition that they tended to be right anyway.

A good read on this is “The Cognitive Distortions of Founders” by Michael Dearing https://link.medium.com/Ri20AKKuL2.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by jcims on Friday December 27, 2019 @12:45PM (#21892807)
> I've definitely known and worked with a few people who were black-and-white thinkers and abstracted away and ignored a lot of second order effects but had such good intuition that they tended to be right anyway.

This is my wife. She’s never undecided and has incredible intuition. I’m a gray thinker to the point of paralysis. When something comes up that we need to sort out, i feed factors and we walk the decision tree until we’re both happy. Works well lol

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by pooroldlistr on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:23PM (#21893122)
I get labeled as a paralyzed grey thinker type. In my twenties I did it all with the travel, party, foodie, career conference crap. In my thirties, I consciously worked on not giving a shit about every little option an possibility. Life need not be seen as a Burger King giving it to me my way.

Counting a spoiled American kid childhood, 30 years of being spoon fed options that marketing felt fit the curve best wore thin.

I’ve become incredibly DIY and avoid socializing because it’s more of the same. Making music at home, learning, creating. I make tons of choices in those contexts all the time, building a new emotional vibe each time.

Picking a sushi joint for the thousandth time is just mind numbingly banal in comparison. And so I seem to have become “indecisive” to others, when internally I just don’t give a shit to go out for sushi again.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by jcims on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:40PM (#21893843)
One behavioral difference I've found in myself vs. my wife is that I always look for what was wrong with my decision after the fact and she always looks for the win in hers. The reality is that you have to spend time thinking about both to truly learn from the exercise, but focusing on what went right definitely improves confidence.

Another thing that a decade of painstakingly quantified decision making has taught me is that the metric details often don't actually matter that much and rarely lead you to a satisfying choice. My most recent example is the purchase of a Bosch dishwasher. I did quite a bit of looking and landed on one of the higher end series that did very well across the board in reviews. I hate it. The dishes come out with this weird sweaty feel to them, the racks suck, and the user interface is beyond horrendous (something that a week stay in a rental property confirmed is common to all Bosch appliances).

So I'm slowly working my way out of it, but I'm almost 50. Wish I would have had better constitution about this out of the gate.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by jacobush on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:55PM (#21893994)
Bosch sucks. But yeah, the problem is not Bosch but the other stuff. I'm also working on it and not far off the heels of your age.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by jariel on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:22PM (#21893107)
"A bad plan is always preferable to no plan" - recently associated with Thiel but I believe it's an old military adage.

I think there is something metaphysical about it; the 'grey' is the ether and the black and white is the materiality that comes out of it literally from force of will.

You can only create something by making a choice, choosing a path, 'making the quantum observation' which dissolves the ambiguity.

Too often we think of the 'solutions' as a form of 'clarity' ... when reality, 'clarity' might be just the force (or clarity) of vision more than anything.

Consider three rules of branding: consistency, authenticity, simplicity. The message resonates when it is consistently and repeatedly applied in a simple way, and there is some kind of 'truthiness' (i.e. authenticity) to it. Sometimes I think of a product roadmap, and all the crazy internal and external politics of it all, as a form of branding. It's a 'decision' (i.e. either black or white) reiterated among individuals such that they can resonate their various talents around it, pushing it into fruition.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by wwarner on Friday December 27, 2019 @12:11PM (#21892505)
Yes, the article ought to mention the downside of grey thinking. The way forward is found by closing the gap between ambiguity and certainty. "All progress depends on the unreasonable man".
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by Swizec on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:07PM (#21892981)
My gut is black-and-white, my mind is grey. As a result I often find myself debating a decision I’ve actually already made.

So I started using a shortcut. Instead of following the arguments, I observe the arguments themselves. Am I trying to justify a yes or a no?

Saves a lot of time. Just do what in your gut you’ve already decided to do anyway.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by extempore on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:23PM (#21893121)
Whenever you're called on to make up your mind, and you're hampered by not having any, the best way to solve the dilemma, you'll find, is simply by spinning a penny.

No - not so that chance shall decide the affair, while you're passively standing there moping; but the moment the penny is up in the air, you suddenly know what you're hoping.

- Piet Hein

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by TeMPOraL on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:44PM (#21893305)
And if it doesn't help, if you still don't truly know what option you prefer, that means that the downsides and upsides of either are balanced so well you may as well pick whatever the coin landed on - the time you're wasting agonizing over the decision is worth more than the marginal improvement of picking the better option.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by bonoboTP on Friday December 27, 2019 @03:37PM (#21894391)
As with all advice, some people are on the other end of the spectrum and need the exact opposite advice.

You may be indecisive because you truly don't know enough about the options and need to do your research to make an informed decision. Don't overdo it, just do enough. How much is enough is not easy to say in general.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Friday December 27, 2019 @12:38PM (#21892741)
The "dose" argument in the article is also rather unconvincing, and the examples used show this. I suppose this is a topic where I know something (capitalism and socialism). The author writes:

> Capitalism is enormously productive but has many limitations. Some socialist institutions actually work well in a capitalist economy, but pure socialism hasn’t tended to work at all.

But this is actually a counter-example. Most socialists (and certainly all of the originators and main theorists) would contend that socialism represents a pure qualitative break with capitalism, that socialism is at odds with capitalism in many ways (law of value, commodity production, class society) and that to speak of implementing "socialist policies" is worse than meaningless, it is a misunderstanding. They have some good reasons to say that socialism represents such a qualitative break with capitalism.

So from my point of view, you can start out thinking "gray" (most people uninformed on the scholarly work on the difference between capitalism and socialism take the point of view of the article) but when you look further, you actually see that it's black and white.

This example, at least, undermined the author's point. "Quantitative scale-based thinking" means that quality rarely enters the mix (except, perplexingly, in the example that "trying heroin once is bad"). Quantitative thinking is not always a perfect fit, because (1) it assumes the object under investigation is quantifiable, (2) it assumes the object is mathematically and formal-logically comparable, (3) quantitative models often simplify beyond how a qualitative model would (as an example, Samuelson's "commodity 1" and "commodity 2", or the presumption that inputs=outputs in Steedman).

Qualitative and quantitative thinking are both important, and the preference for quantitative over qualitative has become increasingly common; as a famous German economist once pointed out (in the criticism of Bentham's utilitarianism), quality logically preceeds quantity. If you don't know what you're talking about, its measurement will be a lot more difficult. This is the same argument levelled at Ricardo (the confusion of form, substance and magnitude into one monstrous mess).

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by reggieband on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:33PM (#21893216)
You hit on some good points and it spurred my thought to his definition of grey. To have a concept of grey you really need a black and a white. You need to define the polls of your continuum. That implies some set of functions that transforms over the continuum. Compared to defining your polls and choosing your transformation functions .... I'm not sure selecting one grey over another really has the same impact.

For some reason this makes me think of Hegel and dialectical (subjects I have limited understanding of).

I also agree that quantitative reasoning has usurped qualitative reasoning and this might be due to quantitative reasoning actually being easier. If you define a scale with which to measure then it is really just a matter of defining how you score something, gathering the inputs and turning a crank to get to an answer. IMO, choosing the scale (and maybe to a less extent the scoring mechanism) seems to be the truly difficult part of the puzzle.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by abernard1 on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:58PM (#21893453)
What exactly would the quantitative "score" be to measure between the qualitative systems of Capitalism and Socialism? Between Buddhism and Christianity? Between Keynesianism and Modern Monetary Theory?

I would submit there isn't one. Furthermore any objective "facts" useful for such a metric have some basis on one theory or interpretation or another.

The article says:

> This is why quantitative and scale-based thinking is so important. But most don’t realize that quantitative thinking isn’t really about math; it’s about the idea that The dose makes the poison.

To adopt their words in response to your comment, what exactly is the numerical "dose" between qualitatively different systems? Could one have identical numerical "doses" in different combinations of those systems? It's a useless, reductionist, and counterproductive way of thinking in my opinion.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by reggieband on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:04PM (#21893507)
> What exactly would the quantitative "score" be to measure between the qualitative systems of Capitalism and Socialism?

Well, isn't this exactly what people try to do when comparing these systems? Number of deaths, number of people in poverty, number of products on the shelves in stores?

> Between Buddhism and Christianity?

You can count the number of atrocities perpetrated by each. The number of scandals involving their priests. The total number of adherents.

> what exactly is the numerical "dose" between qualitatively different systems?

That is the whole point of my post. Defining how to turn a qualitative measure into a quantitate measure is the real and only trick. I chose some arbitrary ones in response to your examples. You may choose different ones. Maybe you choose to measure capitalism and socialism based on some psychological happiness score defined as responses to some survey. Maybe you measure it by GDP. Choosing your measure is the real power.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:49PM (#21893937)
>Well, isn't this exactly what people try to do when comparing these systems? Number of deaths, number of people in poverty, number of products on the shelves in stores?

Not necessarily. Qualitative models have been increasingly adopted, and most arguments from the socialist side of the debate concede that capitalism has greatly improved quantitatively measured standards of living, it is responsible for a huge range of products, and that 20th c. socialism lead to many deaths. Qualitative criticisms are the most popular today in political economy, namely, the work of Sen, Roemer, Vrousalis and others on qualitative (with some quantitative basis) concepts of "exploitation", "domination", "alienation", and "fetishism". Nevertheless, quantitative arguments are also abound, in particular debate over what classifies as "poverty", and the transformation of values to prices of production (usually formulated mathematically). The road to defining axiomitically concepts like "exploitation" still has "a million miles to go" (Veneziani and Yoshihara).

This area of criticism, in my opinion (and the opinion of Honkanen[0]), needs more quantitative reasoning, and qualitative thinking cannot simply brush aside the use of statistics, which is relevant in many (but not all) instances.

[0] Honkanen P. (2020) The Transformation Problem and Value-Form: Methodological Comments. In: Silver M. (eds) Confronting Capitalism in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by reggieband on Friday December 27, 2019 @04:21PM (#21894778)
> most arguments from the socialist side of the debate concede that capitalism has greatly improved quantitatively measured standards of living

All that shows, IMO of course, is there is some common ground between capitalists and socialists when defining some objective quantitative measures. In a sense, we first agree on the rules of some game (i.e. the quantitative indicators of our qualitative desires) and then we turn the crank of the mathematical machine to see what scores the best.

> qualitative thinking cannot simply brush aside the use of statistics, which is relevant in many (but not all) instances.

I agree on this but in a subtle way. Analogies are the worst but I'm going to do it anyway. It's like a boat that has both a rudder and an engine. In this analogy the rudder is qualitative reasoning and the engine is quantitative reasoning. We use qualitative reasoning to "pick a direction" and quantitative reasoning to "move towards the goal". I sometimes think both sides are missing the fact we need both. A rudder without an engine doesn't get anywhere and an engine without a rudder moves aimlessly.

My original argument was that the engine at this point is pretty well known: logic, science, math and computation. However, choosing good qualitative measures and then choosing good methods to convert them into quantitive measures is really difficult. You mentioned that quantifying "domination" or "exploitation" is tricky. I believe that choosing "domination" as your qualitative measure (before you even try to quantify it) is the really difficult thing. So often we go into quantitative mode with very little consideration why we chose the qualitative measures we are using.

It makes me think of Habermas and his work on communicative rationality (another topic I'm very weak on). I'm not sure that is the right tool but I think we need a set of agreed upon tools other than quantitative reasoning to help us solve disagreements on qualitative measures.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by TheOtherHobbes on Friday December 27, 2019 @04:56PM (#21895083)
20th century capitalism also led to many deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/26/commun...

https://www.quora.com/What-has-killed-more-people-communism-...

And the death count for "socialism" usually includes Stalinist Russia, Maoist China, and Nazi Germany, all of which were primarily nationalist governments - in the same way that North Korea is actually a very old-fashioned hereditary absolute monarchy decorated with Stalinist branding.

The closest economies to real socialism are the high-taxation, high-spending Scandinavian social democracies, which score higher than the US on educational attainment, business opportunity, life-expectancy, and educational attainment - but don't do nearly as well at generating billionaires.

The real foundation of social democracy is aggressive wealth redistribution and broad democratic access to policy - not state control. In reality capitalism is far more controlled than social democracy because it operates as a plutocracy that privileges a small demographic. This demographic has exclusive control over policy through lobbying, "funding" of representatives, and the creation and propagation of economic (i.e. "moral") narratives that benefit them - irrespective of party labels.

Against this background, the fact that academics may be debating what exploitation means is very much a side issue.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Friday December 27, 2019 @08:16PM (#21896343)
>The closest economies to real socialism are the high-taxation, high-spending Scandinavian social democracies, which score higher than the US on educational attainment, business opportunity, life-expectancy, and educational attainment - but don't do nearly as well at generating billionaires.

Close, but I would say that socialists don't see it as close enough. Sweden holds a strong form of liberal egalitarianism, as propounded by Rawls in his less 'socialist' writings. But even then, the socialism is beyond its horizon. There is a 'property-owning democracy', and no egalitarian distribution. The capitalist parts of Rawls, without the public ownership of MoP socialist stuff.

The championing of liberal egalitarianism as "good enough" leaves other questions unanswered. Is social democracy still exploitative? Dominating? Alienating? Environmentally damaging? Inefficient? Those questions hold for any form of capitalism, defined as a society in which capital's self-valorization is predominant, and where there is wage labour.

So the question is what kind of argument would justify not only going beyond old school 20th c. death capitalism, but social democratic capitalism, too. Only if you look into whether (1) capitalist societies are exploitative (2) there is a normative reason to do away with it, and the same with alienation, domination and environmental concerns - then there is a good reason for socialism.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by abernard1 on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:12PM (#21893584)
"You can count the number of atrocities perpetrated by each. The number of scandals involving their priests. The total number of adherents."

Yes, but these would be statistics (subjectively determined and presupposing a set of values I might add) to determine whether one or another ideas were better than one another, and in what way.

The grey thinking in this article is just one big ideological blender. It implies that if we had A X Capitalism and (1-A) X Socialism, maybe that would be a sensical or desirable outcome. It does not say in any way how that is a coherent thing, either for those two specific models, or for models in general.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by mnowicki on Saturday December 28, 2019 @01:22AM (#21897483)
> What exactly would the quantitative "score" be to measure between the qualitative systems of Capitalism and Socialism? Between Buddhism and Christianity? Between Keynesianism and Modern Monetary Theory?

The depends on the question. You can compare Buddhism and Christianity in many ways, each with their own score. Are you saying 'which one is better for humanity'? Or 'which one will make my stoner friends think I'm rad?'?

if you were to compare which one has done more good/bad for humanity, than the score would be how much good or bad each one has done for humanity. You may say Buddhism improves the lives of it's adherents about twice as much as christianity on average. But Christianity has 20x as many adherents. But but Christianity is responsible for 10000x more deaths... etc. Then you just need to decide on the value of 'improving a persons life X amount' compared to 'killing X number of people' and do the math.

Of course, you typically don't get to the level of assigning numerical values to human life when forming your opinions most of the time. That's just the explanation of how these things are quantitatively 'scored' to try and answer your question - in practice it's a much more guesstimation-based system.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by username90 on Friday December 27, 2019 @03:08PM (#21894122)
> Most socialists (and certainly all of the originators and main theorists) would contend that socialism represents a pure qualitative break with capitalism

That's the kind of black and white thinking we need to do away with. "Purity" is fun for theorists to talk about but in practice we basically never want pure systems.

Anyhow, how can capitalism and socialism coexists? Well, it already does! Every democracy which levies taxes to run shared services is partly socialist, since these means of production are jointly owned. You can even see the taxes as a way for the people to extract profits from every venture, for example in Sweden the state spends around 50% of GDP so it already owns 50% of everything even if the papers says otherwise, you can't come and say that something which can extract 50% of all value from something doesn't really own it! And every country where you can start, run and profit from companies are partly capitalist. Hence all western nations are partly socialist and partly capitalist. They are on different parts of this spectrum.

For example, most roads are socialist, you don't have to pay to drive on them even though they cost a lot of money. Very few argue that we need less socialist roads and more capitalist roads with toll booths.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Friday December 27, 2019 @03:52PM (#21894530)
>Anyhow, how can capitalism and socialism coexists? Well, it already does!

No (well, "no" from the point of view of scholars of socialism, whose opinion as experts on the topic matters more). Taxes are not "socialist", because "socialism" does not mean a safety net within capitalism. Means of production, as they are spoken of by philosophers, cannot be said to be "jointly owned"[0].

>Sweden the state spends around 50% of GDP so it already owns 50% of everything even if the papers says otherwise, you can't come and say that something which can extract 50% of all value from something doesn't really own it!

These do not count as productive capacity, but as help for workers, even if they were monetary equivalents (quantitatively), they are not qualitatively the same thing. In fact, one of the problems in the theory of exploitation is the question of whether someone who earns a very high income can be said to be "exploited". The compensation, it is held, is not (or less) relevant than the share of productive resources.

>For example, most roads are socialist, you don't have to pay to drive on them even though they cost a lot of money.

Socialism isn't about "fairness" or getting something back from the state[1]. Rather, it's about "class society". I don't mean to argue for or against socialism, but it's important to get the views right. Social safety nets are a social democratic measure within capitalist society. They are "social" but not socialist. Taxes existed in Marx's time (in some cases, higher than what we have now) - nevertheless, Marx called for the establishment of "socialism". Simple redistribution is not the socialist paradigm, except in rare incarnations.

[0] One of the conditions outlined by Roemer, as quoted in SEP: "If S were to withdraw from the society, endowed with its per capita share of society’s alienable property (that is, produced and nonproduced goods), and with its own labor and skills, then S would be better off (in terms of income and leisure) than it is at the present allocation."

[1] "What is "a fair distribution"?

Do not the bourgeois assert that the present-day distribution is "fair"? And is it not, in fact, the only "fair" distribution on the basis of the present-day mode of production? Are economic relations regulated by legal conceptions, or do not, on the contrary, legal relations arise out of economic ones? Have not also the socialist sectarians the most varied notions about "fair" distribution?" (Marx, Critique of the Gotha Program, 1875)

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by username90 on Friday December 27, 2019 @04:35PM (#21894885)
Roads are not safety nets, roads are jointly owned means of production. Same with the electic grid, the broadband network (where I live), school, trains, sewers, water. Lots of things are jointly owned means of production.

Note the question is not "Are we entirely socialist?" but "are we partly socialist?". Yes, we are partly socialist. No, there are still things that are not jointly owned so we are not fully socialist. Hence the grey thinking instead of saying "We are not fully socialist so none of that matters!".

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Saturday December 28, 2019 @11:30AM (#21899763)
>Note the question is not "Are we entirely socialist?" but "are we partly socialist?"

I already explained how and why to say "partly socialist" is false reasoning, because it assumes that "socialism" is some kind of sliding scale. Scholars of socialism do not consider it as such, socialism is defined to be diametrically opposed to capitalism, in the ways I have already mentioned. It is just like saying "Capital is partly a book." - no. It either is a book, or it isn't a book.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by username90 on Sunday December 29, 2019 @03:14AM (#21904763)
There is no reason at all why socialism couldn't be on a scale. Those scholars are just dumb then, it is like saying that there is no scale to democracy. We say that the ancient Greeks had a democracy even though the vote was limited, we said that USA was a democracy even though they had slaves and most people couldn't vote etc. Obviously USA is more democratic today than it were 200 years ago. Similarly most countries have adopted a lot of socialist policies over the past 100 years. Taxes used to be just for the king and armies, never going back to the people. Today most taxes are to build common infrastructure, clearly we moved towards socialism, hence we are more socialist today than 100 years ago.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Sunday December 29, 2019 @07:42AM (#21905596)
To say that socialism is a scale is to presuppose that (1) socialism is compatible with capitalism, (2) government programmes you call socialist act on behalf of the people, rather than capital. Both of these suppositions are called into question. When socialism is defined as ![capitalism & class society] (which, by the majority of experts, it is), it makes no sense to say that a capitalist country (capitalism defined as predominance of wage labour and most agents seeking to maximize the rate of accumulation of capital) is "somewhat socialist". Even if socialism were a scale, it would be a scale between a socialist society that has not yet removed all the fetters of capitalism (i.e. what Marx called the "lower phase") and "full communism". There's no reason to suppose that the scale has any capitalist elements.

The most naive and uninformed idea of socialism, which is not in line with what any socialist considers it to be, is merely "the government providing things". That's not what is meant when we say "socialism", and redefining words contrary to expert opinion and tradition is no substitute.

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by platz on Friday December 27, 2019 @12:59PM (#21892909)
It appears you would reject the premise of running a co-op in a capitalist society because it does not start from a fundamentally pure starting position, or alternatively such a co-op is really a capitalist entity for the same reason and so pursuring such an entity is not a concern of socalists but rather capitalists.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Friday December 27, 2019 @02:14PM (#21893614)
>It appears you would reject the premise of running a co-op in a capitalist society because it does not start from a fundamentally pure starting position

No, not at all. In fact, I support local co-ops. My (and Marx's) only contention is that it is not sufficient to call this "socialism" or "socialism within capitalism", or "a socialist part of capitalism" because socialism is by definition the ending of the specific historical production of commodities and class society. A co-op is an admirable thing to run, but it's not "socialism".

Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by platz on Friday December 27, 2019 @04:32PM (#21894865)
So, you just want to have a semantics debate then, about who gets to define what certain terms mean. That's admirable, but I'm not sure is what OP's article is really about.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by claudiawerner on Saturday December 28, 2019 @10:03AM (#21899219)
No. My point of dispute is that "socialism" is qualitatively different (in actual substance, not just terminology) from "social democracy", that "social democracy" does not answer to what "socialism" is. To my understanding, the author is using the word "socialism" to refer to what I am using it to refer to, but misunderstanding it.
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by platz on Saturday December 28, 2019 @12:10PM (#21900067)
I can generally agree that the author may be misunderstanding or misusing it here, yes
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by mnowicki on Saturday December 28, 2019 @01:27AM (#21897501)
The author probably wasn't using the word 'socialism' in the technically correct way that you've explained, If you just take it for what he meant though then I think his point still stands
Re:The Value of Grey Thinking (2016) by barrkel on Friday December 27, 2019 @01:23PM (#21893115)
Hang on, capitalism is also a social system. It depends on social institutions like property rights, the rule of law, and under most reasonable assumptions, a state with a monopoly on violence. Socialism more generally considers other social constructs to even out extreme outcomes which might otherwise occur in a pure market.