You'd have done well on that one. That's why I asked how you knew, it was a pretty bold prediction and to see it come true like that is quite a thing. Pity you didn't answer sooner!

Haha it's not the first time I've made s spectacular long prediction. I correctly predicted Sarah Palin being the us vice presidential candidate a full six months before it happened.

That was so totally, terribly bad for McCain that I thought he would never ever go for it. You really should put some money on these, looks like you're going to be well off. OTOH of course then you'll score a long string of 0's....

I don't really know how to find these information markets. Sometimes the predictions I make aren't really tradeable, like that time I told my coworker that the house he bought would be beneath a volcano in 15 years (that one came true last year). I also correctly predicted a few startup-relevant things like that theranos was nonsense (prediction circa 2011) and that sriraj raval was kind of a snake.

I've also made some duds like predicting that catalunya would successfully secede.