I noticed this a lot when I tried blogging a couple of summers ago. The articles I thought would be hits bombed, and the stupid ones I wrote just for fun [1] ended up being huge successes.
Inevitably, I just resigned myself to the fact that I don't know what'll be successful, and the only way to find out if something will work is to do it.
[1] http://phillipcohen.net/articles/simcity/ (got like 30,000 hits)
I've noticed the same thing with comments on HN. More often than not, it's the silly one-liner that gets voted up rather than the thoughtful, introspective, and deep comment. I suppose human attention is always the biggest force you have to contend with.
Too many people inappropriately shrug off their smaller thoughts as not worth doing, because they're not going to 'change the world' or some other low-probability outcome.