Re:AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)
by zby on Saturday November 23, 2019 @03:01PM
(#21616150)
What our brains do is curve fitting plus experiments. Causality is learned through experiments - and as children we do a lot of experiments (with moving our limbs etc). With just observations you can have only correlations. For example you can correlate smoke with fire, but only through experiment you can learn that it is fire that causes smoke not the other way around.
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Re:AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)
by manx on Saturday November 23, 2019 @07:22PM
(#21617507)
This is exactly what I thought, but was not able to put into words. Thank you.
Re:AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)
by mr_toad on Saturday November 23, 2019 @07:43PM
(#21617589)
Just include time in the model and use lagged features. It’s used all the time in automated time series forecasting.
Re:AI is mostly about curve fitting (2018)
by tomrod on Saturday November 23, 2019 @09:05PM
(#21617899)
This can tease out transfer entropy but still isn't identifying causal factors.
A common issue you find would be confounding. Then, because you haven't identified the latent connection, you may try to increase level A to have effect on output B, and be disappointed.
This is basically Judea Pearls Book of Why's main hypothesis, that E(Y|X) != E(Y|do(X)), where do(X) is when we modify X somehow.